Monday, July 31, 2006

Drying Up

It's now more apparent than ever: there is definitely an Israeli blockade on Lebanon. Nearly all gas stations in Beirut are closed and the very few remaining are rationing the fuel that is left in the country. According to government sources who spoke to Beirut Live, the rationing will keep Beirut supplied with fuel for a maximum of 20 days. However, some petrol station owners also disclosed that there is enough fuel for at least 8 days and at most 15 days.
The rationing is now limited to a range of 10,000LL-20,000LL per car, just enough to fill 1/4 of an Audi A3 fuel tank if the higher limit is taken into account.
Few options to resupply quickly are at hand. First, two Algerian fuel boats are offshore Lebanon waiting for a green light by Israel to enter Lebanese territorial water. However, it is doubtful Israel will give such a green light. Secondly, Syria stated that it will provide Lebanon with oil from its strategic reserve via land. However, not only would I doubt Israel will allow this to take place, but also Syrian oil has such high amount of sulfur in it that our car engines would 'explode' every 5 minutes - something I dont think any Lebanese can handle these days.
If no solution is found quickly, and no cease-fire is agreed on, I think we will soon revisit Lebanon by foot (or bicycle). Hey, that's not such a bad thing...
mrtez

The Power of Prayer


This is another war advertisment which is worth many claps. It seems God will come to rescue all of us from the madness of man by destroying the enemy. Again, this real war advertisment was found on Haaretz and when visiting its website you read the following:

"For thousands of years it has been proven that the Jewish people have the ability to incapacitate and destroy their enemies through increased Torah study and prayer.

Sign up now for weekly Torah commentaries.We invite you to participate in over 15,000 online classes that are currently being attended by about 100,000 people around the world every week."

I never knew that prayers could destroy ones enemy. Maybe we should all pray a little bit more for the destruction of the other. I am sure God would love that idea. How Bizarre...
mrtez

History Repeats Itself

Tonight we have been terrorized by couple dozens of Israeli F16's flying very low above our heads. It sounded like a continuous thunder in the sky, one that would never stop. All over Beirut for over 30 minutes, the sound was terrifying. Even residents in the North of Lebanon could hear them. What is the goal of this? What is the reasoning? Oddly enough, while all this was happening at around midnight I received a local news alert stating the following: "Israel announced it agreed to a 48-hour suspension of its air activity in Lebanon to investigate the massacre in Qana." How ironic! I even had hard time reading it because of the loud sound of these planes.
Maybe its the IAF's way to say not to miss them too much, they will be back!!!

In the meantime, I pay my respect to the poor children killed yesterday in a horrible strike in Qana. I pay my respects to the 250 other children killed so far in this war which has caused some 700 deaths and over 2,000 injured. I also pay my respect to the 100+ civilians killed in Qana in 1996, during another Israeli onslaught on Lebanon. It seems history does repeat itself.
mrtez


(Qana, July 30th 2006)


Traumatized Lebanese children may suffer
ASSOCIATED PRESS

BEIRUT, Lebanon -- Once again, Lebanon's children are seeing what they shouldn't - visions of death and destruction that may scar them for life. And those are the survivors.
A third of Lebanese killed in Israeli attacks against Hezbollah guerrillas are children, the U.N. humanitarian chief said. Experts warn the conflict is taking a heavy psychological toll as well.
"You can't run away from the sound of bombs," said Nadine Maalouf, a child psychologist who has been working with traumatized children.
Lebanese are no strangers to violence, having suffered through the 1975-90 civil war and Israel's 1982 invasion. But parents who lived through those conflicts had hoped to shield their children.
Instead, they have found themselves helpless in the face of relentless Israeli airstrikes on guerrilla positions in Beirut and southern Lebanon that have flattened entire neighborhoods.
"There was a plane that made a pffff sound," 11-year-old Noor el-Hoda Sherri said, recalling her terror during the bombardment of her Haret Hreik neighborhood, which destroyed her apartment building.
"My heart was hurting. It was pounding very fast," she said, squeezing her chest. "I was thinking, 'This is it, we are going to die. This is our destiny.' I said, 'God will now punish me for all the things I did wrong'" - then listed childhood transgressions such as lying to her mother or pushing around a younger girl.
Ali Kalash, 14, said that when an Israeli missile hit Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV studios in Haret Hreik on July 13, he and a dozen friends - anticipating more attacks - scribbled their names on a water tank near their homes "so that we can recognize our homes when the war is over."

His family's apartment building was destroyed in the strike, and they sought refuge in the same underground shelter as Noor el-Holda and her family.
"I was thinking we're all going to die and we'd never come back," Ali said.
U.N. humanitarian chief Jan Egeland estimated that a third of the hundreds of people killed in Lebanon were children. UNICEF spokeswoman Susan Lagana said Friday that Egeland's figure was based on numbers compiled by UNICEF.
"There is something fundamentally wrong with a war where there are more dead children then armed men," Egeland said Friday at U.N. headquarters in New York. "It has to stop."
At least 443 people - mostly civilians - have been confirmed killed in Lebanon since fighting broke out after Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers in a July 12 cross-border raid. On Thursday, Lebanon's health minister put the number at as many as 600 civilians.
Fifty-two Israelis have been killed in the fighting, including 19 civilians who died in Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israel. Three were children - two boys, ages 4 and 8, from the town of Nazareth, and a 15-year-old girl from the village of Mughar. All were Israeli Arabs..

Sunday, July 30, 2006

Qana, We Scream...Again

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A rare look into Hizbullah's military arm

They are highly disciplined, highly motivated and ready to fight. This article is a very rare look into how men of Hizbullah's "active" group think and act - and most importantly what their aspirations are. It would be hard for me to comment on them now because I wouldn't want them to settle scores with me later (kidding). I think this article by the Guardian is very much worth the read, and I will leave it to you to comment your thoughts on the group's fighting arm.
mrtez

As the shells fall around them, Hizbullah men await the Israelis
Ghaith Abdul-Ahad, south of Tyre
Saturday July 29, 2006
The Guardian

Inside a well-furnished apartment in a village on the outskirts of Tyre, with shelves of books piled from floor to ceiling, a black turbaned cleric and three men sit sipping bitter coffee. By the door is a pile of Kalashnikovs and ammunition boxes; handguns are tucked into the men's trousers. The four are Hizbullah fighters, waiting for the Israelis.

"Patience is our main virtue, we can wait for days, weeks, months before we attack. The Israelis are always impatient in battle and in strategy," says the cleric, Sayed Ali, who claims to be a descendant of the prophet. "I know them very well."

As if to make his point, the sound of Israeli shells blasting the surrounding hills shakes the door and shutters every few minutes. Ali does know the Israelis. He started fighting them at the age of 17 when they invaded Lebanon in 1982. Three years later he was arrested with two of his comrades and spent a few months in an Israeli prison. Within weeks of his release he was fighting them again.That's what he did for the next six years.

For the last five years he has been finishing his theology studies in Tehran. A month ago, he was asked by Hizbullah to return to southern Lebanon. He arrived a week before the fighting began.
Standing at the window, he points to the banana plantations between us and the blue Mediterranean. "I have fought for years in these groves. We used to sit and wait for them [the Israelis] to make a move and then we would hit. They always moved too quickly, too soon."
All over the hills of south Lebanon hundreds of men like Sayed Ali and his comrades are waiting - some in bunkers, some in farm houses - for the Israeli troops to arrive. Sayed Ali and his men spend most of their time in the building where his apartment is, moving only at night.

"We stay put and we don't move till we get our orders, and this is why we are not like any other militia. A militiaman will fire whenever he likes at whatever he likes," explains one of the men, who says he has been involved in firing Katyusha rockets into northern Israel. "We have specific orders. Even when we fire rockets we know when and where [to fire] and each of the men manning the launchers runs to a specific hiding place after firing the rockets."
He says Hizbullah fighters expect the site of a rocket launch to be hit by an Israeli airstrike or shell within 10 to 15 minutes.
Another of the men, who says he is Sayed Ali's brother, explains how Hizbullah teaches its fighters patience: "During our training we spend days in empty buildings without talking to anyone or doing anything. They tell me go and sit in that building, and I go and sit there and wait."

According to Ali, Hizbullah operates as "a state within the state", with its own hospitals, social organisations and social security system. "But we are also an Islamic resistance movement, an indoctrinated army," he adds. "I would go and knock the door at someone and say we need $50,000, he would give me [that] because they trust us."
The fighting force of the organisation is divided into two: the "active" group, whose task is to serve in Hizbullah, and the reserve, or Ta'abi'a, as it is known in Arabic. The active fighters get monthly pay. The reserves are called on only in time of war, and receive bonuses but no regular pay. A third section, the Ansar, comprises people who support or are supported by the organisation.

Ali, the commander of Hizbullah in his village, and his men are part of the active force, and their orders are to wait for further orders. "Hizbullah hasn't even mobilised all its active fighters, and the Israelis are calling their reserve units," he said.
Hizbullah prides itself on its secretiveness and discipline. "We don't take anyone who knocks at our door and says 'I want to join'. We raise our fighters. We take them when they are young kids and raise them to become Hizbullah fighters. Every fighter we have believes that the ultimate form of being is martyrdom." The three men nod their assent.

Shia symbols and mythology play a big role in the ideology of Hizbullah, especially the tragedy of Imam Hussein, the grandson of the prophet who in the 7th century led a few hundred men against the well-organised army of the caliph in Damascus. He was slain in Karbala, and Shia around the world commemorate these events in Ashura.

"Every one of those fighters is a true believer, he has been not only trained to use guns and weapons but [indoctrinated] in the Shia faith and the Husseini beliefs," Ali says.
He and his fellow fighters have been preparing for the latest conflict with the Israelis for years and he acknowledges the support received from Iran.
"When we defeated them in 2000 we did that with [Katyusha] rockets. We had six years to prepare for this day - the Americans are sending laser-guided missiles to the Israelis, what's wrong if the Iranians help us? When the Syrians were here we would get stuff through their supply lines, now it's more difficult."

The TV is blaring patriotic songs and pictures of destroyed bridges, houses and buildings. The men are feeling confident - only a day earlier the Israelis suffered heavy casualties in the village of Bint Jbeil.
"Our strategy is to hit the commandos and the Golani units like we did in Bint Jbeil," Ali says. "Those are their best units. If they can't do anything, the morale of the reserve units will sink."
For Ali and his comrades, the latest conflict is a war of survival not only for Hizbullah but for the whole Shia community. It is not only as a war with Israel, their enemy for decades, but also with the Sunni community. Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt have all expressed fears of Iranian domination over the Middle East.

"If Israel comes out victorious from this conflict, this will be a victory for the Sunnis and they will take the Shia community back in history dozens of years to the time when we were only allowed to work as garbage collectors in this country. The Shia will all die before letting this happen again."
He says that even if the international community calls on Hizbullah to disarm as part of a peace deal, he and his men will not lay down their arms. "This war is episode two in disarming Hizbullah. First they tried to do it through the Lebanese government and the UN. When they failed, the Americans asked the Israelis to do the job."

Despite Israel's claims to have inflicted heavy losses on Hizbullah, Ali insists his side is in a strong position. "Things are going very well now, whatever happens we are winning. If they keep bombing us we will stay in the shelters, and with each bomb more people support the resistance. If they invade they will repeat the miserable fate they had in 1982, and if they hold one square foot they will give the Islamic resistance all the legitimacy. If they want to kill Hizbullah they have to kill every Shia in the south of Lebanon."

And even when the battle with the Israelis is over, he adds menacingly, Hizbullah will have other battles to fight. "The real battle is after the end of this war. We will have to settle score with the Lebanese politicians. We also have the best security and intelligence apparatus in this country, and we can reach any of those people who are speaking against us now. Let's finish with the Israelis and then we will settle scores later."

Saturday, July 29, 2006

PizzaIDF

This is absolutely classic. I think its one of the greatest ads ever (found on Haaretz). Pizza Hut and Domino's watch out, PizzaIDF is on its way.
Respect for the solidarity though.

Bomb and Build

The location and size of the attacks on Lebanon is depicted in the image above. The image displays bombings up to 27th of July. Please click on it to have a better view.

Movement of the Displaced Population
The Israeli attack on the South and the southern suburbs of Beirut has caused a large number of people to flee their homes in the search of areas that have not as of yet been directly targeted by Israeli bombs. According to government sources, a total of 866,780 civilians are currently displaced with 106,780 seeking refuge in schools in Mount Lebanon and Beirut. The displaced have mainly found shelter in schools and relief agencies with government officials stating that approximately 652 have opened their doors for these innocent civilians, moreover; approximately 550,000 have found shelter with families, friends, churches, and mosques. The remaining displaced population has left Lebanon to settle in neighboring countries.

Displaced Data
106,780 people are sheltered in 652 schools
550,000 people are sheltered with families, friends, churches, mosques etc.
210,000 people are still in Syria, Jordan, Cyprus, and Gulf area.
Total of 866,780 people displaced

The table below provides a break down of displaces citizens that are seeking refuge in schools / other entities (non-household):

42,271 people are in 296 schools/other entities in Mount Lebanon
32,465 people are in 144 schools/other entities in Beirut
24,151 people are in 110 schools/other entities in South Lebanon
4,523 people are in 59 schools/other entities in Bekaa
3,370 people are in 43 schools/other entities in North Lebanon
Total of 106,780 people in 652 schools / other entities throughout Lebanon

Casualties / Damages
According to Lebanese government sources, the Israeli attack on Lebanon which commenced on July 12, 2006 has caused the death of 600 innocent civilians and the injury of 3,225.
Israeli bombardments have resulted in the destruction of airports, ports, TV stations, broadcasting antennas, bridges, roads, and villages. Preliminary figures reveal the following damage to infrastructure:

Description Quantity
Vital Points
(airports, ports,
water and sewage
treatment,
electrical plants etc.): 27
Roads: 600 Km
Fuel Stations: 23
Bridges: 62
Over passes: 72
Private houses
/ apartments: 6,200
Commercial
sector (factories,
markets, farms, etc.): 160

Demolished infrastructure has reached an estimate of 2 billion USD which is broken down as shown in the table below:

Division Approximate Damages (Million USD)
Transportation 386
Electricity 180
Telecommunications 85
Water 70
Housing and Trade Organizations 1,144
Industrial Organizations 180
Gas Stations 10
Military infrastructure 16
Total 2,071

Good thing President Bush pitched in to help reconstruct Lebanon last night. But unfortunately the true damages are far greater than simply the physical damages. One estimate is that the Lebanese economy is bleeding away at the rate of $70m a day, due to lost revenues from such major earners as construction and tourism. Others put the figure still higher. The Finance Minister stated that the real cost has exceeded several billion dollars since all major economic activities are completely halted. This includes tourism, aviation, import/export, agriculture and even industry. And this economic meltdown comes in light that Lebanon has the highest debt to GDP ratio in the world standing at 180% compared to GDP (debt is $38 billion). Some 50% of the government's revenues, which it acquires from economic activity, goes to servicing the debt. Whats next for Lebanon? An economic shock? Additionally, the credibilty of the economy has taken a severe blow. Lebanon was becoming a magnet for petro-dollars, now that the economy is in shatters I wonder if private sector money will trickle in.
A good thing though is that donations began to be awarded. Already Saudi Arabia donated $500 million and deposited $1 billion in the Central Bank to reinforce reserves. Additionally, and as mentioned earlier, Bush clearly stated that "we will reconstruct Lebanon, we will reconstruct all the houses so that people can go back home."
Oddly enough, the USA provides the bombs, and then reconstructs the houses. I wonder if Americans are happy tax payers.
mrtez

Friday, July 28, 2006

Grapes of Wrath

(A beheaded Lebanese infant, April 1996)

Does anyone remember the Qana massacre, in 1996? It was a day of horror, a day of grief in Lebanon. It was another time Israel hit a UN-base, but this time it was packed with civilians seeking shelter from yet another onslaught on Lebanon. These are the sort of events that fuel Hezbollah, these are the reasons which makes them strong. Not religion, nor fanaticism. On that day, all of Lebanon lived another black day. On that day, Israel created yet more fear that quickly changed into further support for Hezbullah. Does any Israeli know of this event? Does any non-Lebanese know of this event? If you do or don't wouldn't you think that something is wrong? Wouldn't you agree this is the oppression that gives birth to desperation?
Who better describe this horrible event than Robert Fisk?
mrtez

Robert Fisk
The Independent
19 April 1996

It was a massacre. Not since Sabra and Chatila had I seen the innocent slaughtered like this. The Lebanese refugee women and children and men lay in heaps, their hands or arms or legs missing, beheaded or disembowelled. There were well over a hundred of them.
A baby lay without a head. The Israeli shells had scythed through them as they lay in the United Nations shelter, believing that they were safe under the world's protection. Like the Muslims of Srebrenica, the Muslims of Qana were wrong. In front of a burning building of the UN's Fijian battalion headquarters, a girl held a corpse in her arms, the body of a grey- haired man whose eyes were staring at her, and she rocked the corpse back and forth in her arms, keening and weeping and crying the same words over and over: "My father, my father." A Fijian UN soldier stood amid a sea of bodies and, without saying a word, held aloft the body of a headless child."The Israelis have just told us they'll stop shelling the area", a UN soldier said, shaking with anger. "Are we supposed to thank them?"

In the remains of a burning building - the conference room of the Fijian UN headquarters - a pile of corpses was burning. The roof had crashed in flames onto their bodies, cremating them in front of my eyes. When I walked towards them, I slipped on a human hand...Israel's slaughter of civilians in this terrible 10-day offensive - 206 by last night - has been so cavalier, so ferocious, that not a Lebanese will forgive this massacre. There had been the ambulance attacked on Saturday, the sisters killed in Yohmor the day before, the 2-year-old girl decapitated by an Israeli missile four days ago. And earlier yesterday, the Israelis had slaughtered a family of 12 - the youngest was a four- day-old baby - when Israeli helicopter pilots fired missiles into their home. Shortly afterwards, three Israeli jets dropped bombs only 250 metres from a UN convoy on which I was travelling, blasting a house 30 feet into the air in front of my eyes.

Travelling back to Beirut to file my report on the Qana massacre to the Independent last night, I found two Israeli gunboats firing at the civilian cars on the river bridge north of Sidon. Every foreign army comes to grief in Lebanon. The Sabra and Chatila massacre of Palestinians by Israel's militia allies in 1982 doomed Israel's 1982 invasion.

Now the Israelis are stained again by the bloodbath at Qana, the scruffy little Lebanese hill town where the Lebanese believe Jesus turned water into wine. The Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres may now wish to end this war. But the Hizbollah are not likely to let him. Israel is back in the Lebanese quagmire. Nor will the Arab world forget yesterday'a terrible scenes. The blood of all the refugees ran quite literally in streams from the shell-smashed UN compound restaurant in which the Shiite Muslims from the hill villages of southern Lebanon - who had heeded Israel's order to leave their homes - had pathetically sought shelter. Fijian and French soldiers heaved another group of dead - they lay with their arms tightly wrapped around each other - into blankets. A French UN trooper muttered oaths to himself as he opened a bag in which he was dropping feet, fingers, pieces of people's arms. And as we walked through this obscenity, a swarm of people burst into the compound.

They had driven in wild convoys down from Tyre and began to pull the blankets off the mutilated corpses of their mothers and sons and daughters and to shriek "Allahu Akbar" (God is Great") and to threaten the UN troops. We had suddenly become not UN troops and journalists but Westerners, Israel's allies, an object of hatred and venom. One bearded man with fierce eyes stared at us, his face dark with fury. "You are Americans", he screamed at us. "Americans are dogs. You did this. Americans are dogs. "President Bill Clinton has allied himself with Israel in its war against "terrorism" and the Lebanese, in their grief, had not forgotten this.

Israel's official expression of sorrow was rubbing salt in their wounds. "I would like to be made into a bomb and blow myself up amid the Israelis", one old man said. As for the Hizbollah, which has repeatedly promised that Israelis will pay for their killing of Lebanese civilians, its revenge cannot be long in coming. Operation Grapes of Wrath may then turn out then to be all too aptly named.

The Cedar

You can try to chop as hard as you like,
the Cedar shall always stand against any strike.
It has not fallen to civil war or occupation.
And shall certainly not fall to any aggression.
Let us deal with our own problems internally,
but if you want to help, come to us, diplomatically.
mrtez

Peace Lovers

This is what the Israelis think about the war on Lebanon. What they unfortunately dont know, or maybe dont understand, is that civilians and Lebanon's infrastructure is being hit hard, not Hizbullah alone. The country has been ruined, and yet the IDF "should hit harder". I would have at least preferred the Israeli respondents to state that the IDF should continue its effort, if anything, not increase the strength of its strikes.
mrtez

More than 70% of Israelis support intensifying the offensive in Lebanon, now in its 17th day, according to a poll published Friday by the nation's biggest-selling daily Yediot Aharonot.
Some 71% think the Israeli army "should hit harder" in its strikes against Hizbullah, compared with 26% who think otherwise.
Some 80% say they are satisfied with the military's performance in the conflict and 82% think the conflict in Lebanon is justified. Some 65% of Israelis support the mobilization of additional reservists for the conflict, said the poll, conducted before the security cabinet announced it had given the green light for the call-up of up to 30,000 more troops.
The poll was carried out by the Dahaf Institute among a representative sample of 513 Israelis. The pollsters gave a margin of error of 4.2%. They did not specify whether the poll was carried out before or after the death of nine Israeli soldiers in fighting Wednesday.
Courtesy of AFP

Long Live the United Nations

This is a scan of The Times (27th July issue) on the killing of the 4 UN observers in Lebanon by a 'deliberate' Israeli attack on an observation post in south Lebanon. I know this is covered in every major newspaper around the world, but posting this on Beirut Live shows our sincere support to the United Nations and the important work it continously performs in Lebanon and around the world. Its a shame that the UN Security Council only expressed "shock" to the attack and didnt condemn it - a statment that was watered down because of US support to Israel. I have to thank Mortimer for sharing this article with us, which I think is one of the best I have seen.
Please click on the image to see a larger image of the scan and read the article.
mrtez

Thursday, July 27, 2006

Forza Azzuri

This is an email which has been turning around Lebanese inboxes in the hundreds. A friend of mine (and a fanatic of Italian football) recieved it and shared it with me (a fanatic of French football). Maybe Zidane's headbutt really had a significance after all!!! Sense of humor is still in the air, at last a good sign...keep the smiles rolling...
mrtez

Keeping the spirit high -
In 1982, Italy won the world cup and Israel invaded Lebanon
In 2006, Italy won the world cup and Israel invaded Lebanon
Message to all Lebanese people:Next time Italy wins the world cup,
we all go immediately down to the shelters!!

Hide and Seek...and crystal balls

Has anyone seen this man?

The question of the day: where is Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah?
Ever since the IAF declared that it shook southern Beirut with over 23 tons of explosives and released 5 massive and 19 medium-sized missiles two days ago, you would guess that Dahiyeh and Haret Hreik are not the kind of places you want to be in.
However, the IDF, IAF and Mossad believe that Nasrallah is deep underground (at least 40m), in a complex network of bunkers that span throughout all of southern Beirut. Some rumors also state that the bunker could be 6km long!!! Well after seeing that an Al Jazeera interviewer was able to reach Nasrallah for an exclusive interview (the interviewer was masked so as not to reveal the hiding location) you would guess that Nasrallah is everything but in a bad position. And his bunker is everything but covered by tons of debris. Its as if he was taunting the IAF by having a face-to-face interview.
Interestingly enough two reports were released today about Nasrallah's possible whereabouts. The first stated that he could be hiding in the Iranian embassy close to Beirut's Golf Club. This was quickly denied by the Iranian government:
"Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi has rejected the rumors being spread by the 'Zionist' regime suggesting that Hezbollah secretary general Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah is at the Iranian Embassy in Beirut, MNA reported. "

The second report however was the more amusing one. It stated the following:
"(IsraelNN.com) Hizbullah terrorist chief Hassan Nasrallah traveled to Syria late Wednesday night in a bulletproof vehicle, according to a Kuwait newspaper. Nasrallah is expected to meet for talks with Syrian officials on Thursday to discuss developments in Hizbullah’s war against Israel."

How bizarre!!!
Well lets see if the American made bombs - the GBU-28s (bunker busters) - will have any effect on the main bunker of Hezbollah in southern Beirut and will reveal the real location of Nasrallah. I wouldnt be surprised if they dont...

But its important to note that renowned Lebanese psychic Michel Hayek had apparently predicted in Jan. 2006 that Hassan Nasrallah will be assassinated in the Summer of 2006. Beirut Live acquired a document which the psychic never revealed because of its content. Among other unbelievable events Hayek stated this:

Summer 2006: Assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on the Syrian borders by an Israeli air attack (helicopters) while escaping from Haret Hrayk following an Israeli attack on the southern suburb of Beirut.

Only time will tell what the future holds...
mrtez

Justice?

I ask all you respectable bloggers out there a question. Does it make sense to destroy innocents' homes and kill their residents? War is a horrible thing indeed. People do die during wars, true. But how can one people understand the gestures of the other if horrible, senseless things are being done?
There are two sides to this equation. Two different people seperated by a transparent border are suffering in their own ways. All we see here is our destruction, all you see there is your destruction. We need to come to our senses, we need to listen to each other. But none of that will happen if both sides continue harrassing innocent civilians. Every time a house is bombed, wherever it is, the residents of that house will suddenly transform into the same people they always detested. Its just a vicious cycle...
The following is the extract of the accounts of a New York Times journalist in South Lebanon. Please do tell me, does this make any sense? Is this humane?
mrtez

The earsplitting crack hit just a few blocks from the mayor’s office, where Ghassan Farran, a doctor and member of the city council, was sitting Tuesday night. He dropped to the floor. Pieces of debris flew through an open window. An Israeli bomb had pulverized a seven-story building a short distance away. Mr. Farran stood up and walked to the window. The lights were out. A giant cloud of black smoke filled the sky.
“This is the new Middle East,” he said, his voice shaking with anger.

Mr. Husseini, the mayor, who presides over 67 villages in the Tyre region, said that in the worst-hit areas, bodies were still buried under the rubble, and he appealed to the Israelis to allow government authorities time to pull them out. Dogs were even eating them, he said.
“Who can accept this?” he said. “If we send ambulances, they bomb them.”
As for the food delivery, he tried to be optimistic. “When there will be roads, we’ll bring it to the people.”

Her full article can be found here: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/27/world/middleeast/27lebanon.html

Black Sands

(Ramlet al Baida, Beirut)


(Sporting Club, Beirut)


(Northern Coast)

(Damour, south Lebanon)
(All pictures courtesy of the Ministry of Environment)


Statement by the Ministry of Environment
10,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil has spilled into the Mediterranean Sea along the coast of Lebanon with an additional 15,000 tonnes expected to follow.

On 13 and 15 July 2006 Jieh power utility located 30 Km South of Beirut directly on the coastline was hit by Israeli bombs. Part of the storage tanks caught fire and are still burning 10 days on. The fuel that did not catch on fire was spilled into the Mediterranean Sea as a result of the blast.

Due to winds blowing South West to North East and water current movement the oil spill was partly carried out to sea and partly dispersed along the coast of Lebanon. So far it has affected 70 – 80 km of both public and private rocky and sandy beaches along the Lebanese coast including public and private marinas/ports for boats/ships of fishermen and tourist resorts from the Damour region south of Beirut through to Tripoli in the North.

The Ministry of Environment asks the Lebanese community to assist it in its work and has prepared a Ministerial brief along these lines.

Some Impacts on the Environmental
· The marine ecosystem (fish species) is active in the summer and has been adversely affected, but the degree of damage cannot be estimated at this point in time. Thankfully, the bird migratory season had recently ended and therefore the numbers of birds affected is expected to be low.
· A small percentage of the heavy fuel oil might have evaporated due to exposure to the elements and does not have a lasting effect.
· A small percentage of the oil might be naturally decomposing because of the natural biodegradation process.
· A large percentage of the spill has emulsified and solidified along the Lebanese shore, clinging to sand, rock and stone as the pictures will show.
· Some of the biological impacts after an oil spill can include:
o Physical and chemical alteration of natural habitats such as when oil is incorporated into sediments
o Physical smothering effect on the marine life
o Lethal or sub-lethal toxic effects on the marine life
o Changes in the marine ecosystem resulting from oil effects on key organisms e.g. increased abundance of intertidal algae following the death of limpets which normally eat the algae.

Impacts on Human Health
Some possible short term adverse effects might include nausea, headaches and skin (dermatological) problems in residents living close to the effected areas or in beach goers getting in touch with the oil.

Plant crops and animal products from coastal farms close to the oil spill sites might have to be tested for hydrocarbon content to be declared safe for consumption.

The Ministry does not advise fishing off the quays and wharfs found along the coast from Jieh to Heri-Chekka until the complete scope of pollution is assessed.

Impacts on Tourism
The tourism industry has badly suffered. The acute impact of the war on this industry has been immediately felt by the nation. The chronic impact of the oil spill is disastrous on the tourism industry due to the length of time it is going to take for the clean up of the sand, the rocks, the shallow reef and the marine ecosystem as a whole.

Many public and private beaches have been heavily affected including boats/ships of fishermen and yachts and boats of tourists from all over the Arab world and the Mediterranean countries as well as boats of Lebanese nationals.

Beach-based tourism was a major economic activity in Lebanon and constituted a major part of the Lebanon’s gross domestic product (GDP).

Impacts on Biodiversity & the Fishing Industry
It is not possible at this moment to evaluate the impact on biodiversity because of the need of more detailed technical assessments carried out under safe national conditions.

The siege on Lebanon by the Israeli army has prevented the Lebanese fishermen from going about their daily work. This oil spill has added to their crisis by destroying the immediate marine habitat of the fish species off the coast. However, it is well documented in the literature that the concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons will be elevated above background concentrations over a substantial area. Biodiversity will surely suffer as in Lebanon it is highly concentrated on the coastline.

Other Shoreline Impacts
The Lebanese coastline is made up of mainly rocky shores. The initial estimates show that the mortality of limpets and other herbivores is high. Further detailed studies need to be carried out to assess the true scale of the damage.

When it rains, it pours...


Over the last two weeks, Israel's relentless military campaign has killed roughly 400 civilians and destroyed Lebanon's economy, but the number of Hezbollah rockets has only increased according to reports. This is a chart which illustrates the data, courtesy of The Times. On this side, missiles havent stopped striking all parts of Lebanon too, but no reports are available on the amount dropped yet by the IAF and IDF. All we know is that 23 tons fell on south Beirut. That was exceeded when 24 bombs hit that area yesterday, Tuesday.
mrtez and HB

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Target Practice?

I am now truly convinced that the missiles used on Lebanon are precision-guided missiles. Too bad it was a Red Cross ambulance. Bull's Eye indeed!!!
mrtez

The Birth...

(Picture depicts the attack that the Irgun 'terrorist' group undertook in 1946 against British assets in Jerusalem)

This is an excellent article written by Correlli Barnett, a military historian at Churchill College. This man witnessed what he calls the first terrorism in the Middle East.

ISRAEL WAS FORGED THROUGH ASSASSINATION AND KIDNAPPINGS
DAILY MAIL (London)
July 21, 2006
By Correlli Barnett

Several of my good friends are American, but this does not inhibit me from criticising George W. Bush's catastrophically misguided invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Similarly, I have good friends who are Jewish, but this will not inhibit me from criticising the current 'total war' being waged on Lebanon by the Israeli state. The fact that some of my Jewish friends will read this article only makes me the more sad that I have to say, as a military historian, that this war is grotesquely out of proportion to the level of casualties and damage previously inflicted on Israel by Hezbollah. It is likewise grotesquely out of proportion to the taking hostage of two Israeli soldiers -- as are the ferocious Israeli attacks inside the Gaza strip in response to the taking hostage of just one soldier.
Certainly, Israel has the right to defend herself today as she has done successfully in the past. But surely her response to Hamas and Hezbollah should have been limited and precisely targeted rather than a version of the 'shock and awe' bombing which opened the American invasion of Iraq in 2003. The Israeli government should have learned that 'shock and awe' may only be a prelude to a protracted guerilla war. During the long and bitter struggle against the IRA in Northern Ireland, it never occurred to any British government that the IRA bases and arms dumps within the Irish Republic should be bombed by the Royal Air Force, let alone that whole districts of Irish cities like Drogheda known to harbour IRA terrorists should be destroyed. Equally, it has never occurred to a Spanish government that it would be right and proper to respond to the lethal, indiscriminate attacks by ETA (the Basque terrorist organisation) by savagely bombing and rocketing San Sebastian and other Basque cities.
Why should Israel regard herself as a p r i v i l e g e d exception? Why should 'the West' in general -- and Bush and Blair in particular -- also regard her as a privileged exception, rightfully entitled to conduct a savage total war in response to Hezbollah attacks no worse than those of the IRA and ETA? These questions are the more pertinent because Israel herself was born out of a terrorist struggle in 1945-48 against Britain, which then ruled Palestine under a United Nations mandate.
The so-called Stern Gang (after its founder, Abraham Stern) specialised in assassination, its most famous victim being Lord Moyne, the Colonial Secretary, shot in Cairo in 1944. But by far the most dangerous Jewish terrorist group was the Irgun Zvei Leumi (National Military Organisation) led by Menachem Begin, who after the creation of the state of Israel founded the Likud political party, and even finished up as prime minister. The group's propaganda stated its political aims with brutal clarity. First, what it called 'the Nazo-British occupation forces' must be driven out of Palestine. Then a Jewish state would be established embracing the whole of Palestine and Transjordan (as Jordan was then known). Too bad about the native population of Arabs, of course.
The group's logo, displayed on the fly-posters which I myself saw as a soldier in Palestine in 1946-47, showed a crude map of Palestine and Transjordan with an arm holding a rifle splayed across it. The Irgun's successful attacks included the demolition in 1946 of the wing of the King David Hotel in Jerusalem housing the secretariat of the British mandatory government and also the HQ of British troops in Palestine -- at a cost of 91 lives, Jewish, Arab and British, most of them civilians (for more info on this attack, click here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_David_Hotel_bombing) . Another 'success' was the blowing-up of the Officers' Club in Jerusalem in March 1947. I saw the corpses lying on slabs in the morgue, spittle still bubbling out of their mouths. In combat with a terrorist group perhaps some 3,000 strong, a maximum of 100,000 British troops was deployed in a country about the size of Wales. There was a lesson here for George W. Bush and Tony Blair before their invasion of Iraq -- but of course a lesson unheeded by men with no interest in history.
In July 1947, the Irgun Zvei Leumi kidnapped two British Intelligence Corps sergeants as hostages to trade against the lives of three Irgun terrorists under sentence of death for an attack on Acre jail. Here is an exact parallel to the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah. But unlike the savage reaction of Ehud Olmert's government today, the British government in 1947 did not seek to apply pressure to the kidnappers by ordering the RAF to destroy large parts of Tel Aviv, and the Royal Artillery to bombard selected Jewish settlements suspected of being bases for the Irgun. In the event, the three Jewish terrorists were hanged -- and the Irgun in turn strung up the two British sergeants from a tree in an orange grove and booby-trapped their bodies.
Yet even then it did not occur to the British authorities to impose the kind of savage collective punishment that Olmert's government is now visiting on the Arabs of Gaza and southern Lebanon. A notice posted by the Irgun proclaimed that the two sergeants had been hanged because they were 'members of the British criminal-terrorist organisation known as the British Army of Occupation in Palestine', responsible for the murder of men, women, children and prisoners of war. The so- called 'murdered prisoners of war' were in fact terrorists hanged after due trial.
This Irgun proclamation signed off with the warning: 'We shall revenge the blood of the prisoners of war who have been murdered, by actions of war against the enemy, by blows which we shall inflict on his head.' So blood- thirstily selfrighteous is the language of this long proclamation that it could just as easily have been written today by Hezbollah or Hamas or Al-Qaeda. The sacred cause may be different, but the language and the type of mind behind it remain the same.
In the event, Jewish terrorism against the British finally succeeded. All attempts to negotiate a future for Palestine which balanced Jewish interests against those of the majority Arab population came to nothing. A project for a single state with Jewish and Arab cantons was rejected by the Arabs. An Arab proposal for a single state based on the existing Arab majority and a limit on future Jewish immigration was rejected by Jewish leaders. A two- state solution, proposed by a UN commission and favoured by Washington, was in turn rejected by the Labour Government, who rightly feared that it would be British troops who would have to impose the settlement on one side or the other -- or perhaps on both.
This, the chiefs of staff warned, would require two extra divisions on top of the two already in Palestine. With the Irgun campaign of bombing still going on, and the tally of British casualties mounting, Clement Attlee's Cabinet had quite simply had enough. They refused to impose the UN plan, and instead opted for unconditional withdrawal, even at the cost of (in the words of Ernest Bevin, the Foreign Secretary) 'a period of bloodshed and chaos'. Another lesson here for Tony Blair in regard to Iraq? So Britain handed the mandate back to the UN and announced that British rule in Palestine would end in spring 1948. As it duly did. In the last months of the mandate, the security situation dissolved into three-cornered violence -- Jew versus British and Arab; Arab versus Jew and British; British versus both.
By the time the last British force had left, this violence had degenerated into anarchic civil war between Jew and Arab. It was just the prelude to the full-scale war between the new state of Israel and neighbouring Arab regimes wanting to extinguish it. The war ended in the successful conquest by Israel of the larger part of Palestine, and a tidal wave of Arab refugees into Lebanon and Jordan. Here is the origin of today's bitter Arab resentment of Israeli hegemony -- a resentment which powers Hamas and Hezbollah as they follow the path of terrorism first mapped out by the Stern Gang and the Irgun Zvei Leumi in the 1940s.

CORRELLI BARNETT is a Fellow of Churchill College, Cambridge.

The Irony of the word 'terrorism'


I find it rather odd that a State which declares a war on 'terror' itself used 'terror' in its past. I know this thought has been expressed before, but it is important that even though I do not believe in the killing of innocent civilians, it is even more important that light is shed on true historic facts. Please read the latter article posted on Wikipedia. I adore the similarities between the Irgun poster (pictured above) and the Hizbullah flag (found here: http://www.worldstatesmen.org/lb-hezb.gif). Simply unbelievable. Pay attention to the map (which includes Jordan) and the smaller text in bold which reads: "The sole solution." This poster was distributed in Central Europe.
My favorite parts of the Wiki entry are: "Eliminate or reduce the threat of Arab attacks on Jewish targets by assured and harsh retaliation for such attacks"; and "In 1948, the group was formally dissolved and its members integrated into the newly formed
Israeli Defense Forces. This integration largely coincided with the sinking of the Altalena, a ship with fighters Irgun had recruited and arms Irgun had acquired for the Israeli forces."
Again, this is posted to start a commentary on what is terrorism. Who gives it legitemacy? Werent the French Resistance considered heros for some and terrorists for others? I am not for the killing of innocents, nor for states within a state, much the contrary. I want a free, independent, sovereign and united Lebanon. But I am also not ignorant, and know what has happened in the history of the Middle East. This has to be brought up.
enjoy, mrtez...

From Wikipedia:
Irgun (ארגון), shorthand for Irgun Tsvai Leumi (ארגון צבאי לאומי, also spelled Irgun Zvai Leumi), Hebrew for "National Military Organization", was a clandestine militant Zionist group that operated in the British Mandate of Palestine from 1931 to 1948. In Israel, this group is commonly referred to as Etzel (אצ"ל), an acronym of the Hebrew initials. In the time in which the Irgun operated, often people referred to the Irgun as 'הגנה ב or ההגנה הלאומית. The Irgun was classified by the British authorities and several other Jewish organizations as a terrorist organization, while others considered it to be an independence movement. Its political association with Revisionist Zionism rendered it a predecessor movement to modern Israel's right-wing Likud party/coalition.

Founding, development and key events
The group was an offshoot of the Haganah in protest both against its policy of restraint and socialist leanings. Based on the premises formulated by Ze'ev Jabotinsky that "every Jew had the right to enter Palestine; only active retaliation would deter the Arabs; only Jewish armed force would ensure the Jewish state," (Howard Sachar: A History of the State of Israel, pps 265-266) the group made retaliation against Arab attacks a central part of their initial efforts. The Jewish Agency denounced the existence, strategy, and tactics of the group from the very outset, although the Haganah cooperated with Irgun on several occasions.
Irgun was founded in 1931 by Avraham Tehomi, following a largely political and ideological split with the Haganah after he had assumed leadership over the district of Jerusalem. Irgun differentiated itself from the Haganah by disassociating from the socialist ideology and the prevalent strategy of Havlagah, or restraint. Throughout its history Irgun advocated a more decisive use of force in the defense of Jews in Mandate Palestine and in advancing the formation of a Jewish state.
While the strategy, tactics, and operational methods of the organization changed through the years, its primary goals were to:
- Provide a non-Socialist alternative to the leading Zionist organizations;
- Eliminate or reduce the threat of Arab attacks on Jewish targets by assured and harsh retaliation for such attacks;
- Bring to an end the British mandatory rule, which they considered in violation of international law
The group went through several phases in its short lifespan:
From 1931 to 1937 it was a small, renegade group that undertook scattered attacks against Arab targets. This phase ended when the group itself split, with some of its leaders, including the original founder, Tehomi, returning to the Haganah, and the group began formally identifying itself as "Etzel" (Irgun).
During the Great Uprising (1936-1939), in which about 320 Jews were killed in Arab attacks, Irgun resumed its reprisal attacks against Arabs. Following the killing of five Jews at Kibbutz Kiryat Anavim on November 9, 1937, Irgun launched a series of attacks which lasted until the beginning of World War II, in which more than 250 Arabs were killed.
These attacks coincided roughly with Irgun's campaign to facilitate the immigration of European Jews who faced discrimination, murder and pogroms in Europe. The first vessel arrived on April 13, 1937, and the last on February 13, 1940. All told, about 18,000 Jews escaped genocide in Europe in this way.
Upon the publication of the White Paper in May of 1939, Irgun concentrated all its efforts against the British.
From 1940 through 1943, Irgun declared a truce against the British, and supported Allied efforts against Nazi forces and their allies in the area by enlisting its members in British forces and the Jewish Brigade. A small group lead by Avraham Stern, who insisted on continuing to fight the British, broke off and formed an independent group, Lehi. In 1941, the Irgun leader, David Raziel volunteered for a dangerous British military mission in Iraq to capture or kill Amin al-Husayni, but was killed by a German bomber before the operation could be finished.
In February of 1944, under the new leadership of Menachem Begin, Irgun resumed hostilities against the British authorities. The purpose of these attacks was to increase the cost of British mandatory rule and influence British public opinion so as to encourage British withdrawal. It included attacks on prominent symbols of the British administration, including the British military, police, and civil headquarters at the King David Hotel and the British prison in Acre. Although these attacks were largely successful, several Irgun operatives were captured, convicted, and hanged. Refusing to accept the jurisdiction of the British courts, those accused refused to defend themselves. The Irgun leadership ultimately responded to these executions by hanging two British sergeants, which effectively brought the executions to an end.
Following the assassination of Lord Moyne by Lehi, the Yishuv and Jewish Agency initiated "The Hunting Season" on Irgun and the Lehi group, facilitating the arrest of some 1000 members of those organizations who were interned in British camps. The British deported 251 of them to camps in Africa.
From about October of 1945 until July 1946, Irgun was in an alliance with the Haganah and Lehi called the Jewish Resistance Movement (תנועת המרי העברי), organized to fight British restrictions on Jewish immigration. The Haganah's active participation in the Resistance Movement ended as a result of Operation Agatha, and it formally abandoned the alliance following the Irgun bombing of British military, police, and civil headquarters at the King David Hotel which was a retaliation for the Agatha raid.
From July 1946 until June 1948, Irgun fought as irregulars against the British mandate and Arab forces, informally in coordination with Haganah forces. Their participation in alleged war crimes at Deir Yassin has been widely discussed and documented. Their largest single operation was a successful assault on Jaffa (an Arab enclave according to the UN partition plan) starting on April 25.
In 1948, the group was formally dissolved and its members integrated into the newly formed Israeli Defense Forces. This integration largely coincided with the sinking of the Altalena, a ship with fighters Irgun had recruited and arms Irgun had acquired for the Israeli forces.

Legacy of Irgun
Leaders within the mainstream Jewish Agency, Haganah, Histadrut, as well as British authorities, routinely condemned (publicly at least; privately the Haganah kept a dialogue with the dissident groups) Irgun operations as terrorist and branded it an illegal organization, as a result of the group's attacks on civilian targets. In their defense, former Irgun leaders assert that:
- The premises for their founding and strategy were vindicated by subsequent events. Arab violence against Jews in the mandate of Palestine could only be deterred through retaliation; the British authorities only ended their restrictions on Jewish immigration when pressured by force; and unrestricted Jewish immigration was a matter of saving lives, both during the Shoah and during post-World War II pogroms in Poland and Ukraine.
- Operations that are usually characterized as "terrorist" had another character. The King David Hotel bombing, in which 91 people were killed, most of them civilians, was considered a legitimate military target, being the British military headquarters; the attack on Deir Yassin was part of a campaign to control the road between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv; the attack on the Acre prison was to release prisoners the British intended to hang.

Radio station
The Irgun had, from 1939, a Radio station: Kol Tsion HaLokhemet ("The Voice of Fighting Zion").

List of Irgun Attacks in 1930s
Following is a list of attacks that have been attributed to Irgun that took place during the 1930's only. I am amazed by the creativity: 20 Arabs were killed by explosives mounted on a donkey at a marketplace in Haifa. A donkey?

April 20, 1936 - 2 Arab workers in a banana plantation killed
March, 1937 - 2 Arabs killed on Bat-Yam beach
November 14, 1937 - 6 Arabs were killed in several shooting attacks in Jerusalem.
April 12, 1938 - 2 Arabs and 2 British policemen were killed by a bomb in a train in Haifa.
April 17, 1938 - An Arab was killed by a bomb detonated in a cafe in Haifa
May 17, 1938 - An Arab policeman was killed in an attack on a bus in the Jerusalem-Hebron road.
May 24, 1938 - 3 Arabs were shot and killed in Haifa.
June 23, 1938 - 2 Arabs were killed near Tel-Aviv.
June 26, 1938 - 7 Arabs were killed by a bomb in Jaffa.
June 27, 1938 - An Arab was killed in the yard of a hospital in Haifa.
July 5, 1938 - 7 Arabs were killed in several shooting attacks in Tel-Aviv.
On the same day, 3 Arabs were killed by a bomb detonated in a bus in Jerusalem.
On the same day, an Arab was killed in another attack in Jerusalem.
July 6 1938 - 18 Arabs and 5 Jews were killed by two simultaneous bombs in the Arab Melon market in Haifa.
July 8, 1938 - 4 Arabs were killed by a bomb in Jerusalem.
July 16, 1938 - 10 Arabs were killed by a bomb at a marketplace in Jerusalem.
July 25, 1938 - 39 Arabs were killed by a bomb at a marketplace in Haifa.
August 26, 1938 - 24 Arabs were killed by a bomb at a marketplace in Jaffa.
February 27, 1939 - 33 Arabs were killed in multiple attacks, incl. 24 by bomb in Arab market in Suk Quarter of Haifa and 4 by bomb in Arab vegetable market in Jerusalem.
May 29, 1939 - 5 Arabs were killed by a mine detonated at the Rex cinema in Jerusalem.
On the same day, 5 Arabs were shot and killed during a raid on the village of Biyar 'Adas.
June 2, 1939 - 5 Arabs were killed by a bomb at the Jaffa Gate in Jerusalem.
June 12, 1939 - A post office in Jerusalem was bombed, killing a British bomb expert trying to defuse the bombs.
June 16, 1939 - 6 Arabs were killed in several attacks in Jerusalem.
June 19, 1939 - 20 Arabs were killed by explosives mounted on a donkey at a marketplace in Haifa.
June 29, 1939 - 13 Arabs were killed in multiple shootings during one-hour period.
June 30, 1939 - An Arab was killed at a marketplace in Jerusalem.
On the same day, 2 Arabs were shot and killed in Lifta.
July 3, 1939 - An Arab was killed by a bomb at a marketplace in Haifa.
July 4, 1939 - 2 Arabs were killed in two attacks in Jerusalem.
July 20, 1939 - An Arab was killed at a train station in Jaffa.
On the same day, 6 Arabs were killed in several attacks in Tel-Aviv.
On the same day, 3 Arabs were killed in Rehovot.
August 27, 1939 - 2 British officers were killed by a mine in Jerusalem.
Only operations resulting in death are included above. The Irgun conducted at least 60 operations altogether during this period (Perliger and Weinberg p101).

1, 2, 3, 4 or 5? What will happen?


This is an attempt by the Independent to predict the outcome of the crisis through a matrix. However, I think it is foolish to try and do so as no one knows the real reasons behind this war or how it might turn. Worth reading though...
mrtez

The Middle East: What happens next?

Israel withdraws unilaterally? Diplomatic settlement? Israel snared in counter-insurgency? Lebanese government falls? Israel invades Lebanon? We analyse the options.
Published: 25 July 2006

Option 1: Israel withdraws unilaterally
How?
Amid international outcry over mounting civilian casualties and destruction of civilian infrastructure in Lebanon, President Bush is prevailed upon to pressure the Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, to rein in the military.
And then what?
Uneasy truce in which status quo is restored: probable halt to incoming rockets but Israel still vulnerable to raids like the one 13 days ago in which two soldiers were abducted by Hizbollah. Hizbollah celebrates "victory" and continues to build its strength as a military force, claiming it has twice defeated the Israeli war machine.
Winners ...
Hizbollah - would still claim victory over Israel, angering US, which views militia as a proxy for Iranian terror.
... and losers
Israel - would still say it had degraded Hizbollah " infrastructure," but at a huge cost to its international reputation.
So will it happen?
Unlikely, given the high political cost to Israel and the US.

Option 2: Diplomatic settlement
How?
Israel realises it has launched an unwinnable war. Its US allies fear the invasion has turned the region into a tinder box. Israel takes the route of least resistance and looks to the UN for a face-saving climbdown. The US accommodates by encouraging European countries to send a buffer force on the border with Lebanon.
And then what?
Buffer forces come in all shapes and sizes. To work they have to be accepted by all sides. Hizbollah is unlikely to make concessions unless pressed by Iran and Syria - and to do this they will want concessions. International troops would supervise the disarmament of Hizbollah. But Hizbollah is not going to accept foreign forces, having already ''liberated'' its land from Israel's 22-year occupation.
Winners...
The US would claim victory for its tactics as, of course, would Israel.
...and losers
Lebanon, with its country ravaged.
So will it happen?
Increasingly likely, as Israel sees no military solution.

Option 3: Israel snared in counter-insurgency
How?
Israel gets bogged down in protracted skirmishes on both sides of its northern border. This would effectively be a reversion before withdrawal from Lebanon by Prime Minister Ehud Barak in 2000. Hizbollah has showed it can survive under occupation. After these Israeli assaults, they would have many more recruits and could inflict terrible casualties.
And then what?
Guerilla war as Iran, Hizbollah's prime sponsor, decides to push for decisive victory. Hamas, allied to Hizbollah on Israel's second front in Gaza, intensifies rocket attacks. In Israel, public opinion would remain solid in the short term, but even Israeli morale flags in the face of constant bloodshed.
Winners...
In US and British eyes the "terror axis" of Hizbollah, Iran and Syria.
...and losers
Israel, facing unending conflict on yet another front and further international condemnation.
So will it happen?
Should Condoleezza Rice's diplomacy fail, quite likely.

Option 4: Lebanese government falls
How?
Probably only if Israel attacked Syrians first. Syria doesn't want direct conflict, which it would lose. Devastation caused by Israeli attack puts the fragile government in Beirut under unbearable pressure. The country, with 17 sects, risks fracturing. The Iranian and Syrian-backed Shia Hizbollah movement, which has two ministers in cabinet and 14 MPs, is strengthened.
And then what?
Disaster. General anarchy, although the US probably does not want to get involved in this. Possible return of Syria as power broker a year after its troops were forced out at the end of a 29-year occupation. But a much worse possible scenario: southern Lebanon could become a cauldron of terror as militant groups pour into the region in support of Hizbollah.
Winners ...
At first, Israel's military, Syria militarily.
... and losers
Lebanese people, Hizbollah.
So will it happen?
Should the Israeli onslaught continue apace, it is quite likely.

Option 5: Israel invades Lebanon
How?
Because Israel can't think of anything else to do. But it did not work in 1982, so why should it work now? This would be a massive military undertaking that would evoke memories of the previous invasion, which was the most unpopular war in Israel's history. Possible occupation of Lebanon south of the Litani river.
And then what?
Lebanese population and rest of the world mobilise against the invasion, which would fail to dismantle Hizbollah, given Israel's last experience. Israel would be the aggressor, rather than the victim (as it had been when its soldiers were captured). Disaster for Israel, which risks losing soldiers in large numbers and being bogged down in another occupation.
Winners...
Few winners except arms sellers and manufacturers. Hizbollah, as fighting wars is what they do best.
...and losers
Lebanese people and government, Middle East governments.
So will it happen?
Unlikely, given the huge pressure that would be brought to bear on Israel.

What the Hell is coming next?

Thats it, he said it...Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has just said it...
"We will initiate the battle of whats beyond Haifa..."
What does that mean? What will the repurcussions be? International TV stations are all covering this major escalation. And we are sitting here, feeling useless, feeling like hostages, feeling like targets.
Will they hit Tel Aviv? Will they hit Israeli assets outside of the region? Are the Israelis prepared to take the strong punch of escalation?
One thing is for sure, Nasrallah always kept his word. So when he says he will strike beyond Haifa, rest assured he will. Unfortunately for us here in the heart of the battle we are simply living the unimaginable.

How?
If Hezbollah strikes Tel Aviv, there is only one way they can do so, and thats by using the Iranian made Zelzal-2 rocket. The Zelzal-2 (which means Earthquake in Arabic) has a 200km range and a 600kg high-explosive warhead. It was reported that Hezbollah has recieved the Zelzal-2 in 2002. Israeli intelligence believes that the group has 30 of these rockets, but other sources have told Beirut Live that this number could be as high as 100. I really hope this escalation will not further affect the Lebanese people, but I am having hard time believing it will not. If we are lucky, Nasrallah literally means "what is beyond Haifa" as in using the Fajr-5 rockets which would not reach Tel Aviv, but rather half way there. However, the Fajr-5 would allow Hezbollah to hit targets south of Haifa, a range that covers about a third of Israel's population, around half of its industry, and its main oil refinery. And I dont mean lucky as in hitting Israel deeper, but lucky as in not escalating this madness any further.
mrtez




Global Security info on Zelzal:
Zelzal-2 / Mushak-200
The number of names and naming systems attributed to Iranian missile programs is evidently far larger than the number of actual missile programs. One case in point may be the 200 km range Mushak-200 which is reported to be in development, that may be the Zelzal-2. The Zelzal-2 missile system was made available for sale by Iran in 1996. It has a length of 8.46 m and a diameter of 0.61 m, with a launch weight of 3,545 kg. It carries its 600 kg warhead to a maximum range of 200 km (124 miles).
The Zelzal-2 is apparently a locally produced version of the Luna-M [NATO name FROG-7] missile with a launcher based on the MB LA-911 truck chassis. The 8.3 meter-long rocket has a range that is variously estimated at between 100km to 400km, though 200km is the most widely quoted estimate and 100km is the most likely estimate based on the performance of the Soviet missile. The Zelzal-2 is armed with a 600kg high-explosive warhead, and some suggest that it may be able to carry chemical and biological payloads.
It is possible that Zelzal-2 missiles were used against Iraqi terrorist training camps in 2001, and the Fateh A-110 is believed to be a guided variant.
In October 2002 it was reported that Iranian Zelzal-2 short-range ballistic missiles had been delivered to Iranian Revolutionary Guard units in the Beka'a Valley in Lebanon. Israelis sources frequently claim that long-range rockets have been transferred to Lebanon, including 240mm versions of the standard 122mm 'Katyusha' rocket, and Iranian Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 rockets. Hizbullah typically refuses to confirm or deny such reports. However, in late October 2002 Sheikh Mohammed Yazbek, a senior Hizbullah official, hinted at the group's reach, saying that "all sensitive areas of the Zionist entity are within the range of our fire... wherever they exist".

(The Zelzal-2 in parade in Iran pictured above; Iran's rockets with some in Hezbollah hands below)





Meanwhile, on the other side of the border...
This is a news report published on www.manar.com which one of our readers brought to our attention...Sorry if the english isnt perfect, it was translated by a software from Arabic. But you get the idea...i neither cant believe Arab nations have allowed this to happen, and that this conflict is nowhere close to ending.
mrtez

American military transport planes landed in Israel Carrying missiles and bombs huge vacuum and military equipment

Arrived in the early hours of Tuesday morning to air bases in Israel massive American military aircraft loaded with arms and military equipment. coming from the Gulf States, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Sources particular l (Al-Manar) Five transport planes landed in three Israeli air bases in central and southern country. carrying sophisticated weapons, including huge high-explosive bombs, grenades vacuum multiple sizes and electronic devices. The sources said that US transport planes launched from Qatar and Saudi Arabia. It was the beginning of US air bridge to cross Israel in the war of aggression against Lebanon.

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Lebanon, the sitting duck

This is a map of the Israeli attack on Lebanon from 15-21st of July. I think the IDF and IAF thought that Lebanon was the Swiss Cheese of the Middle East, not the Switzerland of the Middle East. Its really, really a shame!
And now the IDF warned that for every rocket launched on Haifa, 10 buildings will be bombed into thin air in southern Beirut. Its as if we have to pay for their inneficiency in stopping the rockets hitting northern Israel. Really, what a shame...
mrtez

The Democratic Approach...

No Comment...

Operation Peace for the IDF














Haaretz
By Gideon Levy
For the skeptics (http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/738739.html)

Every neighborhood has one, a loudmouth bully who shouldn't be provoked into anger. He's insulted? He'll pull out a knife. Spat in the face? He'll draw a gun. Hit? He'll pull out a machine gun. Not that the bully's not right - someone did harm him. But the reaction, what a reaction! It's not that he's not feared, but nobody really appreciates him. The real appreciation is for the strong who don't immediately use their strength.
Regrettably, the Israel Defense Forces once again looks like the neighborhood bully. A soldier was abducted in Gaza? All of Gaza will pay. Eight soldiers are killed and two abducted to Lebanon? All of Lebanon will pay. One and only one language is spoken by Israel, the language of force. The war that the IDF has now declared on Lebanon and before it on Gaza, will never be considered another "war of no choice." Let's save that debate from the historians. This is unequivocally a war of choice. The IDF absorbed two painful blows, which were particularly humiliating, and in their wake went into a war that is all about restoring its lost dignity, which on our side is called "restoring deterrent capabilities."

Neither in Lebanon nor certainly in Gaza, can anyone formulate the real goals of the war, so nobody knows for sure what will be considered victory or an achievement. Are we at war in Lebanon? With Hezbollah? Nobody knows for sure. If the goal is to remove Hezbollah from the border, did we try hard enough over the last two years through diplomatic channels? And what's the connection between destroying half of Lebanon and that goal? Everyone agrees that "something must be done." Everyone agrees that a sovereign state cannot remain silent when it is attacked within its own borders, though in Israel's eyes Lebanese sovereignty was always subject to trampling, but why should that non-silence be expressed solely by an immediate and all-out blow? In Gaza, a soldier is abducted from the army of a state that frequently abducts civilians from their homes and locks them up for years with or without a trial - but only we're allowed to do that. And only we're allowed to bomb civilian population centers.

The painful steps taken in Gaza, which included dropping a one-ton bomb on a residential building, or killing an entire family of seven children under cover of darkness in Lebanon, killing dozens of residents, bombing an airport, cutting off electricity and water to hundreds of thousands of people for months were a response lacking any justification, legitimacy or proportion. What goal did it serve? Was the soldier released? Did the Qassams stop? Was deterrence restored? None of that happened. Only lost honor was supposedly restored, and immediately the next evil wind showed up, this time from the north. Two more soldiers were abducted and it was clearly proven that the deterrent power was not restored, while IDF failures repeated themselves. How does one erase those searing failures? On the backs of innocent populations. In Lebanon, the situation is more complicated. There is no Israeli occupation and no justification for provoking Israel. If Hezbollah is so worried about its Palestinian brethren, it should have first of all done something for the hundreds of thousands of refugees living in camps in Lebanon in conditions that are just as bad as those under the Israeli occupation, before it grabbed soldiers in their name. But does the fact that Hezbollah is a cynical organization that exploits the misery of Palestinians for its own purposes justify the disproportionate reaction? The concept that we have totally forgotten is proportionality. While we're in no hurry to get to the negotiating table, we're eager to get to the battlefield and the killing without delay, without taking any time to think. That deepens suspicions that we need a war every few years, with terrifying repetition, even if afterward we end up back in exactly the same position.

The war we declared on Lebanon has already exacted from us, and of course from Lebanon, too, a heavy price. Did anyone give any thought to the question whether it should be paid? Everyone knows how this war begins, but does anyone know how it ends? Heavy casualties in the Israeli rear? A war with Syria? A general war? Is it all worth it? Look what a new rookie government can do in such a short time. Behind the operations in Lebanon and Gaza is the same foolish idea about pressure on the population leading to political changes that Israel wants. In the history of the Israeli-Arab conflict, that concept has only led us from one disaster to the next. We "cleansed" southern Lebanon of Palestinians in 1982, and what did we get? Hezbollahstan instead of Fatahland. Hamas won't fall because Gaza is in the dark, and not even because we bombed the Palestinian Foreign Ministry building at the weekend - another nonsensical move; Hezbollah won't be smashed because the international airport in Beirut has been put out of commission. Israel once again is not distinguishing between a justified war against Hezbollah and an unjust and unwise war against the Lebanese nation. The camouflage concealing the war's real goals was ripped off by this defense minister, who says what he means: "Nasrallah is going to get it so bad that he will never forget the name Amir Peretz," he bragged, like a typical bully. Now at least we know that Israel went to war so that the name Amir Peretz is never forgotten. It's the war for the perpetuation of the name Peretz and the blurring of Dan Halutz's failures. And to hell with the cost!!!

‘Boom’ Town


(Picture depicts two Israeli jet fighters flying above Beirut's hotel district on Monday 24th July)

Once upon a time there was a little country on the eastern Mediterranean coast called Lebanon. This tiny country with a little over 4 million people was plagued by cycles of prosperity and destruction. Over a year ago, this Lebanon found itself propelled into a new era when its divided people were able to successfully unite and drive out an authoritative foreign power. It seemed Lebanon at last found the way to a bright future. Billions of dollars of investments were being directed to the country, the stock market was booming, new companies were being set up, jobs were being created, reforms were being studied, privatization was being discussed, sky scrapers, hotels, office buildings and residences were being erected and tourists were flocking in. However, this is not a fairy tale with a happy ending, this is the Middle East!
This certain Lebanon is now no more. All the major roads that have been weaved throughout the years of reconstruction have been rendered useless. All the major bridges which Lebanon was so proud of have dissipated into thin air. Factories have been targeted by missiles, businesses have been shut, beach resorts are covered with thick black ash, the stock market has been frozen and hotels are empty. To estimate the damages to the economy at this moment in time would be a foolish endeavor as it is too soon to assess the full effect of the massive blitz that is taking place. However, the government did estimate that Lebanon would cash in over US$2 billion this year through the 1.6 million tourists which were expected to visit – the best tourist season in Lebanon’s history. That is now gone. The government did also estimate that the damages to the infrastructure have nearly reached, if not exceeded, the US$1.5 billion mark. That will surely be surpassed. And with the latest statement by Finance Minister Jihad Azour estimating the costs of the material damages, economic losses in terms of tourism, exports, trade and industry as well as loss in earnings to have already reached several billion dollars, rest assured that Lebanon has been dealt a severe blow under the belt.
And what is even more worrisome is that these excessively high numbers are adding up even though the core of the infrastructure – electricity, water and communication – has not yet been struck hard. Power stations are still running, even though their fuel tanks have been blown up. Communications are still available even though calling on the mobile network from one area to the other is slowly becoming more tedious. Even the international airport and the ports have so far been spared as only the airport’s runways and the ports’ empty docks have been shelled. The question is what would happen to the country if there is a sudden shift of strategy?
All in all, Lebanon suffered a total of US$4.6 billion in physical damage due to Israeli attacks from 1968 till today according to Lebanese-Canadian economist Kamal Dib. Throughout these 38 years of attacks, the housing infrastructure was struck the hardest with a total of US$1.6 billion of damages. In the 2006 attacks, Dib estimated so far that total physical damages have already reached US$1.6 billion, out of which the roads/infrastructure recorded a total of US$700 million – by far the most damaging Israeli attack on Lebanon’s roads. In comparison, the second most damaging attack on infrastructure took place in 1982 when the Israeli ground forces reached and shelled Beirut under the leadership of Defense Minister Ariel Sharon. That attack was estimated to have cost Lebanon some US$1.7 billion in total, out of which the road infrastructure represented a mere US$50 million in damages.
However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. As an example, the core of Lebanon’s economy – its banking sector – has been tested to be war proof and is armed with US$11 billion in foreign exchange reserves to shield it from any potential financial crisis. The banking sector remained open throughout the entire ruthless civil war and has so far not closed during this latest assault. Every banking branch in Beirut is up and running, even though dollar bills have become scarcer to obtain. In terms of electricity, close to 80% of all buildings in Beirut are equipped with generators in case the current distributed by Electricite du Liban (EDL) is disturbed. This would allow businesses to continue operating for at least a month after EDL runs out of fuel. Even Middle East Airlines (MEA) is up and running and operating – even though with a limited scope – out of Damascus International Airport.
The biggest danger that could emerge from this raid is two faced. The first would be the breakdown of the confidence investors have had in the country. So far, Gulf investors who have funneled billions of petrodollars into high end real estate projects, have continued to show their interest in the Lebanese market. The two largest project developers in Downtown Beirut – Abu Dhabi Investment House’s Beirut Gate and Levant Holding’s Phoenician Village – have both expressed their confidence in a strong Lebanese real estate sector even after the onslaught. If downtown Beirut is struck, this feeling could quickly change.
The second danger, however, could be the fatal blow to the economy. This ongoing bombardment has brought about one of Lebanon’s largest exodus in its history. Already over 150,000 people have fled Lebanon via Syria, while another 50,000 are expected to flee to Cyprus via the naval war ships of countless countries of the world. Lebanon has fought hard throughout the reconstruction years to attract the millions of Lebanese spread throughout the world back to the country. It is true that most of these people have fled for safety reasons and are planning to return as soon as diplomacy settles in, but if Lebanon loses as little as 1% of its people due to this crisis, then the country would have lost enormous value in its most important economic asset.
What is truly a shame is that Lebanon was heading the right way, even though there were some hiccups in the economic planning. Our vision was taking us to a new Lebanon, an economically powerful Lebanon. It’s as if we had a bottle half full and instead of filling the rest or drinking what was inside, someone blew massive holes in the container. We are seeing our future slip through our fingers. But we shall not give up, we will reconstruct and show to the world what Lebanon is all about. We will demonstrate why Beirut’s name is derived from the Phoenix, the resurrecting bird.
mrtez