The Aftermath? Maybe not

The war between Israel and Hizbollah might be over for now, but a new war within Lebanon has just started. We are facing mountains of problems from all sides - be it economically, socially, politically or enviromentally.
Economically the country has lost in total over $15 billion according to a UNDP estimate, out of which $3.6 billion accounts for direct physical damage. All of the 15-years of reconstruction we were so proud of are gone to waste in one month. And add to that the problem of our public debt - which equals over 180% of the GDP or $40 billion - and the situation becomes very strenuous. Hopefully, the donor conference to be held in Sweden on 31st August will raise enough money to pull Lebanon out of an imminent financial and economic disaster.
Socially, the Israeli/Hizbollah war has clearly divided the Lebanese people – the Shias on one side and everyone else on the other (read article below). This new situation can become very dangerous in a country where people are loyal to their sects. If flared up by any miniscule event, the divisions could transform into civil strife – a condition which no one desires in Lebanon.
Politically, apart from the internal divisions between Hizbollah and the rest of the parties, the country is still under a constant blockade by Israel. All planes departing or landing in Rafik Hariri International Airport have to make a forced stop-over in Amman to be searched by Israeli officials. And not a single boat can enter or leave the country. Such a blockade is making the situation much more difficult for anyone to enter into internal dialogue since the country’s sovereignty is still under attack.
Enviromentally our sea shores are completely devestated. Some 15,000 tons of fuel oil have leaked from the Jiyeh Power plant polluting over 150 kilometers of the Lebanese coast - a catastrophe which is beggining to be compared to the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill that devestated Alaska's Prince William Sound. Plans for clean-up are already being sketched out but apparently the operation would take nearly a year to complete and cost some $64 million.

And the worst part is that a lot of people still don’t believe the war is over. It might be for now, but some don’t think for long: “A frightening side to this long-term promise for believers in the UN ceasefire is that Hizbollah has encouraged its Shia population to rent homes in Khalde, south of Beirut, since it intends to delay its entire city construction project for a year - because of its conviction that the ceasefire will break down and that another Israeli-Hizbollah war will only wreck newly built homes.” This was written by Robert Fisk on the 24th of August 2006 (click here to read the article).
mrtez

Rifts over Hizbullah form Lebanon's new green line
Declan Walsh in Beirut
Thursday August 24, 2006
The Guardian

Only in Beirut do war scars and champagne chic blend so easily. In Achrafiye, an upmarket district of hip restaurants and nightclubs where a bottle of bubbly can cost $1,000, a ravaged building totters over a street corner.
Bullet holes pock the walls and the windows have long disappeared. Rubbish and barbed wire clog the front door and weeds sprout from the upper floors. The lonely ruin is what remains of the Green Line, the infamous boundary that divided Christian East and Muslim West Beirut during the 17-year-old civil war of the 1970s and 80s. Until recently it was a reminder of a bitter conflict most Lebanese thought was over. But since this summer's 34-day war with Israel, there are fears of fresh divisions within Lebanese society that could heave the country into a new era of turmoil.
The new green line wobbles uncertainly around the role of Hizbullah. As Israeli warplanes pulverised Lebanon's infrastructure and laid entire villages to waste, many Lebanese silently rallied around the fighters' resistance. But since a ceasefire took hold 11 days ago, sectarian dissent has slowly swelled.
Druze, Sunni and some Christian leaders blame Hizbullah for provoking Israel and are demanding the group submit to the national government. "The [political] situation has become dramatically worse since July 12," said Michael Young, opinion page editor at the Daily Star newspaper. "The perception among non-Shia communities is that Hizbullah went to war without consulting with anyone."
Some quietly suggest Israel should have gone further to crush the militant group. "I wish with all my heart this war had not ended," one Christian woman, who asked not to be named, said in the southern city of Tyre.
An exception is the Christian leader Michel Aoun, who has forged an alliance with Hizbullah in what he depicts as an effort to build bridges with Muslims. But this is controversial among other Christians, who say Hizbullah has let countries such as Syria and Iran use Lebanon as a battleground for their interests.
The fiercest argument centres on disarmament. Israel, the US and the UN say Hizbullah must surrender its arms to ensure peace. "To play a patriotic role they don't need weapons," said Elias Attallah of the Democratic Left party. "An army and a resistance movement cannot live side by side. In Lebanon no community can accept domination by another. Otherwise it will lead to war."
Others say such demands may be incendiary. "If the government persists in trying to disarm Hizbullah and if the US keeps pushing them, this will create sectarian tensions, a split in the army, and could very well lead to a civil war," said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a lecturer at the American University of Beirut who has written a book on Hizbullah.
Among its Shia supporters, at least, Hizbullah is riding a wave of popularity. In Beirut yesterday officials handed out thick wads of US dollars to war refugees whose houses had been destroyed. The funding is widely believed to come from oil-rich Iran, Hizbullah's main sponsor.
Musa Trablisi, 57, slipped $12,000 (£6,340) into his pocket, the maximum under Hizbullah's compensation system. His house in Ainata near the Israeli border has been flattened, he said. Even so, his loyalties were clear. "As long as Israel attacks and bombs our country, and as long as our government is paralysed, I am with Hizbullah," he said.
One solution could be to rejig Lebanon's political structures. Under the country's sectarian power-sharing system, based on a 1932 census, Shia are under-represented in the government, civil service and top ranks of the army.
But efforts to reach an internal settlement are constantly buffeted by outside forces. Some feel Lebanon's future lies in the hands of powerbrokers in Washington, Tehran and Damascus. "Geographically we are in the wrong place, like Poland during world war two," said Khaled Daouk, a Sunni businessman.