Hizbollah’s Outlook in the Current Conflict
A fascinating read into the mind of the Hizbollah. We will soon publish Part Two of the research entitled "Accommodating Diplomacy and Preparing for the Post-War Context". Stay tuned...
Part One: Motives, Strategy, and Objectives
By Amal Saad-Ghorayeb
The fighting between Israel and Hizbollah has reached a critical juncture given Israel’s widening ground offensive and the heated negotiations over an impending UN Security Council resolution to end the conflict. Israel’s war on Hizbollah has catapulted the movement onto the world stage, earned it widespread respect throughout the Arab and Islamic world, and hardened its support in Lebanon. Understanding Hizbollah’s outlook both with regard to the onset of the current conflict as well as its strategic objectives is crucial to assessing the likely course of events in the crucial weeks ahead.
Hizbollah’s July 12 Ambush: Motives and Expectations Concerning an Israeli Response
After Israel’s massive response to Hizbollah’s July 12 ambush of an Israeli convoy, many commentators and ordinary Lebanese concluded that Hizbollah’s decision to carry out the attack was either an Iranian-issued and Syrian-encouraged directive, aimed at igniting a war with Israel and dragging Lebanon into a wider regional conflict, or a reckless miscalculation that unwittingly wreaked havoc on the country.
The fundamental flaw in the first interpretation is that it does not take into account Hizbollah’s similar abductions in the past which paved the way for prisoner exchanges with Israel involving hundreds of Lebanese and other Arab prisoners. Moreover, the party had dubbed 2006 “the year of the prisoners” (referring to the three Lebanese detainees whom Israel refused to release in the larger prisoner exchange of 2004) and did in fact attempt to capture Israeli soldiers in the preceding months for that very purpose. In Hizbollah’s view, therefore, the abductions did not constitute a paradigm shift in its military strategy that necessitated an Iranian stamp of approval or warranted a massive Israeli response. From Hizbollah’s perspective, the fact that Israeli soldiers were captured from Israel proper on July 12 did not represent a significant change in the rules of the game given Israel’s routine violations of the Blue Line separating Israel from Lebanon. It is in light of these considerations that Hizbollah claims it anticipated a more customary Israeli response to abductions: limited aggression, to be followed by a prisoner exchange. As admitted by the deputy-head of the party’s Politburo, Mahmoud Qomati, Hizbollah “did not expect the response would be of this magnitude.”
This acknowledgement may appear to corroborate the second interpretation. It would be an
oversimplification, however, to take Hizbollah’s admission of not forecasting such a military escalation as evidence of sheer miscalculation. Judging by Hizbollah’s ability to absorb the shock of Israel’s immense air power, its impressive performance in ground battles, and its sustained ability to launch rockets at Israeli towns and cities, Hizbollah does not appear to have been taken completely off guard by Israel’s offensive. It is likely that the party had envisaged a large-scale Israeli response as one of many possible scenarios—though perhaps not giving it as much weight as others—and had therefore laid out the necessary contingency plans. As articulated by Hizbollah’s Energy Minister, Mohammed Fneish, “when we make a decision we lay out plans for what the Israeli response might be, even the worst possibilities, and we are ready for them. We base our decisions on the worst possible outcomes.”
In fact, there is evidence suggesting that Hizbollah must have foreseen an existential showdown with Israel at some point in the short to medium term. Before the outbreak of the conflict, the party had been engaged in the Lebanon National Dialogue talks, which deliberated over, among other issues, the fate of Hizbollah’s arms under the aegis of proposals for a “National Defense Strategy.” Some political forces belonging to the “March 14” Lebanese parliamentary majority, which enjoys close ties with the United States and France, had used these talks as an effort to implement the U.S.-French brokered UNSC Resolution 1559, which calls for Hizbollah’s disarmament. According to Qomati, the party was fully aware that the talks were heading toward deadlock and believed the result would be that the United States would try to implement Resolution 1559 by means of an Israeli military assault on Hizbollah. In effect, Hizbollah was “prepared but not for the timing of the operation.”
Hizbollah’s Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, announced in July that the party had recently learned that the offensive had been planned for this September or October and that as such, it was fortuitous Hizbollah abducted the Israeli soldiers when it did: doing so hastened the war and hence deprived Israel of the “element of surprise.” Qomati cites the Bush administration’s consistent rejection of an immediate cease-fire as proof that the United States is orchestrating the war and that it would have been waged regardless of the abductions. Hizbollah has thus gone beyond its conventional view of the United States’ role as one of post-facto justification and legitimatization of Israeli actions, and now perceives Washington as the primary engineer of Israel’s current onslaught. Talk by U.S. officials of turning the Lebanon crisis into an “opportunity” to forge a “New Middle East,” coupled with the Bush administration’s adamant refusal to accept anything less than the “conditions for a sustainable cease-fire,” are interpreted by Hizbollah as U.S. dictates for both the instigation and prolongation of the current conflict. As expounded by Nasrallah in a speech last month, “the Israelis are ready for stopping the aggression….it is the United States which insists on continuing the aggression on Lebanon.” In this connection, Israel is now seen as an “obedient tool” of a U.S. policy that seeks to redraw the political map of the region beginning with Lebanon and working its way through to Iran and Syria.Given these factors, Hizbollah frames the current conflict as one waged by the United States and Israel against it, thereby, in its view, rendering its military objectives entirely defensive.
As declared by Nasrallah, “we did not want this war, but we are fighting it because it was imposed on us.” Although it appears that Hizbollah neither deliberately ignited a large-scale conflict that could engulf the entire region nor ignorantly miscalculated the likelihood of such a scenario, now that this war has been set in motion Hizbollah has not shied away from utilizing it in the service of its regional and domestic objectives, which are described below.
Hizbollah’s Strategic Objectives in the Current Conflict Military Objectives
One of Hizbollah’s central objectives in this war is the creation of new definitions of power and victory that cannot be measured in quantitative or material terms. This process has been facilitated by three factors. The first is the very high, ultimately unattainable bar that Israel set for itself at the beginning of the conflict—eliminating Hizbollah—and Israel’s consequent need to change its goals thereafter. Second, and conversely, is the fact that Hizbollah did not clearly articulate any military objectives to begin with, save for its intent to secure a prisoner exchange at some point. It logically follows that a military victory for Hizbollah merely consists of denying Israel the ability to secure any tangible achievement.
To date, Hizbollah appears to have succeeded insofar as Israel has not attained any of its declared military goals, i.e. the unconditional release of the two Israeli soldiers, the dismantlement or severe weakening of Hizbollah’s capacity to continue resisting Israeli forces, the neutralization of Hizbollah’s rocket capability, or pushing Hizbollah back to the Litani River. The third is the asymmetrical nature of the warfare—the Israeli Defense Forces’ vast size and strength compared to Hizbollah’s guerilla forces amplifies any sign of military weakness on the Israeli side and any indication of strength from Hizbollah’s side. These features of the conflict have enabled Nasrallah to declare that Hizbollah’s very survival constitutes a victory, as does what he has called its “steadfastness in front of the fiercest military power” and its “continuation with the confrontation.”
Hizbollah also regards itself as triumphant for having outperformed all conventional armies which have fought Israel throughout the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict. This includes Hizbollah’s ability to blunt the Israeli incursion, inflict losses on the Israeli army, and more significantly, take the conflict to Israel itself through rocket attacks. While these short-term goals are about Hizbollah’s own survival and status, Hizbollah also strives for longer term objectives which aim at shattering the myth of Israeli military invincibility. In a telling recent public speech, Nasrallah agreed with Shimon Peres’s assertion that the conflict was an existential one for Israel. Ruling out the notion of “liberating Palestine” and “destroying” Israel, Nasrallah construed Peres’s “life and death” statement as indicative of Israel’s fear of the ramifications of a Hizbollah victory on the future of Israel. As explicated by Nasrallah, “when the people of this transient state lose their confidence in their legendary army, the end of this entity will begin. This is because Israel is a state that was established for an army, and in Israel there is no army made to serve a state.” Hizbollah views the Israeli state as being subordinate to its military, which defines the very nature, identity, and foundation of the state. According to this line of reasoning, once this military is given its first taste of defeat, the foundations of the state will be shaken and Israel will begin to unravel.
Political Objectives
Another central objective of Hizbollah is to confront Washington’s “New Middle East” initiative and to frustrate the plan’s realization both in Lebanon and the region. In Hizbollah’s view, the only forces capable of stopping the U.S. plan are the main actors of the strategic axis which encompasses Syria, Iran, Hizbollah, and Hamas. It is for this reason that the United States seeks to eliminate them from its path, beginning with Hizbollah in Lebanon. This perception has only been exacerbated by the U.S. government’s framing of the current conflict as part of both the war on terrorism and President Bush’s freedom agenda, as exemplified by Bush’s recent contention that Hizbollah is “willing to kill and to use violence to stop the spread of peace and democracy,” and his characterization of the war as “part of a larger struggle between the forces of freedom and the forces of terror in the Middle East.” Hizbollah officials believe they have a “destiny to confront this accursed plan and to thwart the goals of this war,” which includes stripping Lebanon of its “history, commitments, culture, and true identity to become an American-Zionist Lebanon.”
Hizbollah’s war with Israel thus becomes “an affirmation of the people’s right to resist occupation and the rejection of the American imperialistic tendency,” in the words of Mohammed Fneish. By blocking U.S. objectives in this war, Hizbollah will “obstruct the American plan” for the region “not in its aims but its results.” Hizbollah’s linking of the outcome of the current fighting with the success or failure of the U.S. Middle East plan is evinced by Nasrallah’s depiction of the conflict as “surpassing Lebanon….it is the conflict of the umma,” whose results will reverberate throughout the entire region. Given the immense popularity Hizbollah now enjoys in the Sunni Arab mainstream and among Islamist movements, the outcome of the war will have significant consequences not only for U.S. and Israeli goals in the region but also for the so-called “moderate” Arab regimes, whose substantial deference to the U.S.-Israeli line has been cast into sharper relief.
Amal Saad-Ghorayeb is an assistant professor at the Lebanese American University in Beirut. She writes regularly on Lebanese politics and is the author of Hizbullah: Politics and Religion
Part One: Motives, Strategy, and Objectives
By Amal Saad-Ghorayeb
The fighting between Israel and Hizbollah has reached a critical juncture given Israel’s widening ground offensive and the heated negotiations over an impending UN Security Council resolution to end the conflict. Israel’s war on Hizbollah has catapulted the movement onto the world stage, earned it widespread respect throughout the Arab and Islamic world, and hardened its support in Lebanon. Understanding Hizbollah’s outlook both with regard to the onset of the current conflict as well as its strategic objectives is crucial to assessing the likely course of events in the crucial weeks ahead.
Hizbollah’s July 12 Ambush: Motives and Expectations Concerning an Israeli Response
After Israel’s massive response to Hizbollah’s July 12 ambush of an Israeli convoy, many commentators and ordinary Lebanese concluded that Hizbollah’s decision to carry out the attack was either an Iranian-issued and Syrian-encouraged directive, aimed at igniting a war with Israel and dragging Lebanon into a wider regional conflict, or a reckless miscalculation that unwittingly wreaked havoc on the country.
The fundamental flaw in the first interpretation is that it does not take into account Hizbollah’s similar abductions in the past which paved the way for prisoner exchanges with Israel involving hundreds of Lebanese and other Arab prisoners. Moreover, the party had dubbed 2006 “the year of the prisoners” (referring to the three Lebanese detainees whom Israel refused to release in the larger prisoner exchange of 2004) and did in fact attempt to capture Israeli soldiers in the preceding months for that very purpose. In Hizbollah’s view, therefore, the abductions did not constitute a paradigm shift in its military strategy that necessitated an Iranian stamp of approval or warranted a massive Israeli response. From Hizbollah’s perspective, the fact that Israeli soldiers were captured from Israel proper on July 12 did not represent a significant change in the rules of the game given Israel’s routine violations of the Blue Line separating Israel from Lebanon. It is in light of these considerations that Hizbollah claims it anticipated a more customary Israeli response to abductions: limited aggression, to be followed by a prisoner exchange. As admitted by the deputy-head of the party’s Politburo, Mahmoud Qomati, Hizbollah “did not expect the response would be of this magnitude.”
This acknowledgement may appear to corroborate the second interpretation. It would be an
oversimplification, however, to take Hizbollah’s admission of not forecasting such a military escalation as evidence of sheer miscalculation. Judging by Hizbollah’s ability to absorb the shock of Israel’s immense air power, its impressive performance in ground battles, and its sustained ability to launch rockets at Israeli towns and cities, Hizbollah does not appear to have been taken completely off guard by Israel’s offensive. It is likely that the party had envisaged a large-scale Israeli response as one of many possible scenarios—though perhaps not giving it as much weight as others—and had therefore laid out the necessary contingency plans. As articulated by Hizbollah’s Energy Minister, Mohammed Fneish, “when we make a decision we lay out plans for what the Israeli response might be, even the worst possibilities, and we are ready for them. We base our decisions on the worst possible outcomes.”
In fact, there is evidence suggesting that Hizbollah must have foreseen an existential showdown with Israel at some point in the short to medium term. Before the outbreak of the conflict, the party had been engaged in the Lebanon National Dialogue talks, which deliberated over, among other issues, the fate of Hizbollah’s arms under the aegis of proposals for a “National Defense Strategy.” Some political forces belonging to the “March 14” Lebanese parliamentary majority, which enjoys close ties with the United States and France, had used these talks as an effort to implement the U.S.-French brokered UNSC Resolution 1559, which calls for Hizbollah’s disarmament. According to Qomati, the party was fully aware that the talks were heading toward deadlock and believed the result would be that the United States would try to implement Resolution 1559 by means of an Israeli military assault on Hizbollah. In effect, Hizbollah was “prepared but not for the timing of the operation.”
Hizbollah’s Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, announced in July that the party had recently learned that the offensive had been planned for this September or October and that as such, it was fortuitous Hizbollah abducted the Israeli soldiers when it did: doing so hastened the war and hence deprived Israel of the “element of surprise.” Qomati cites the Bush administration’s consistent rejection of an immediate cease-fire as proof that the United States is orchestrating the war and that it would have been waged regardless of the abductions. Hizbollah has thus gone beyond its conventional view of the United States’ role as one of post-facto justification and legitimatization of Israeli actions, and now perceives Washington as the primary engineer of Israel’s current onslaught. Talk by U.S. officials of turning the Lebanon crisis into an “opportunity” to forge a “New Middle East,” coupled with the Bush administration’s adamant refusal to accept anything less than the “conditions for a sustainable cease-fire,” are interpreted by Hizbollah as U.S. dictates for both the instigation and prolongation of the current conflict. As expounded by Nasrallah in a speech last month, “the Israelis are ready for stopping the aggression….it is the United States which insists on continuing the aggression on Lebanon.” In this connection, Israel is now seen as an “obedient tool” of a U.S. policy that seeks to redraw the political map of the region beginning with Lebanon and working its way through to Iran and Syria.Given these factors, Hizbollah frames the current conflict as one waged by the United States and Israel against it, thereby, in its view, rendering its military objectives entirely defensive.
As declared by Nasrallah, “we did not want this war, but we are fighting it because it was imposed on us.” Although it appears that Hizbollah neither deliberately ignited a large-scale conflict that could engulf the entire region nor ignorantly miscalculated the likelihood of such a scenario, now that this war has been set in motion Hizbollah has not shied away from utilizing it in the service of its regional and domestic objectives, which are described below.
Hizbollah’s Strategic Objectives in the Current Conflict Military Objectives
One of Hizbollah’s central objectives in this war is the creation of new definitions of power and victory that cannot be measured in quantitative or material terms. This process has been facilitated by three factors. The first is the very high, ultimately unattainable bar that Israel set for itself at the beginning of the conflict—eliminating Hizbollah—and Israel’s consequent need to change its goals thereafter. Second, and conversely, is the fact that Hizbollah did not clearly articulate any military objectives to begin with, save for its intent to secure a prisoner exchange at some point. It logically follows that a military victory for Hizbollah merely consists of denying Israel the ability to secure any tangible achievement.
To date, Hizbollah appears to have succeeded insofar as Israel has not attained any of its declared military goals, i.e. the unconditional release of the two Israeli soldiers, the dismantlement or severe weakening of Hizbollah’s capacity to continue resisting Israeli forces, the neutralization of Hizbollah’s rocket capability, or pushing Hizbollah back to the Litani River. The third is the asymmetrical nature of the warfare—the Israeli Defense Forces’ vast size and strength compared to Hizbollah’s guerilla forces amplifies any sign of military weakness on the Israeli side and any indication of strength from Hizbollah’s side. These features of the conflict have enabled Nasrallah to declare that Hizbollah’s very survival constitutes a victory, as does what he has called its “steadfastness in front of the fiercest military power” and its “continuation with the confrontation.”
Hizbollah also regards itself as triumphant for having outperformed all conventional armies which have fought Israel throughout the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict. This includes Hizbollah’s ability to blunt the Israeli incursion, inflict losses on the Israeli army, and more significantly, take the conflict to Israel itself through rocket attacks. While these short-term goals are about Hizbollah’s own survival and status, Hizbollah also strives for longer term objectives which aim at shattering the myth of Israeli military invincibility. In a telling recent public speech, Nasrallah agreed with Shimon Peres’s assertion that the conflict was an existential one for Israel. Ruling out the notion of “liberating Palestine” and “destroying” Israel, Nasrallah construed Peres’s “life and death” statement as indicative of Israel’s fear of the ramifications of a Hizbollah victory on the future of Israel. As explicated by Nasrallah, “when the people of this transient state lose their confidence in their legendary army, the end of this entity will begin. This is because Israel is a state that was established for an army, and in Israel there is no army made to serve a state.” Hizbollah views the Israeli state as being subordinate to its military, which defines the very nature, identity, and foundation of the state. According to this line of reasoning, once this military is given its first taste of defeat, the foundations of the state will be shaken and Israel will begin to unravel.
Political Objectives
Another central objective of Hizbollah is to confront Washington’s “New Middle East” initiative and to frustrate the plan’s realization both in Lebanon and the region. In Hizbollah’s view, the only forces capable of stopping the U.S. plan are the main actors of the strategic axis which encompasses Syria, Iran, Hizbollah, and Hamas. It is for this reason that the United States seeks to eliminate them from its path, beginning with Hizbollah in Lebanon. This perception has only been exacerbated by the U.S. government’s framing of the current conflict as part of both the war on terrorism and President Bush’s freedom agenda, as exemplified by Bush’s recent contention that Hizbollah is “willing to kill and to use violence to stop the spread of peace and democracy,” and his characterization of the war as “part of a larger struggle between the forces of freedom and the forces of terror in the Middle East.” Hizbollah officials believe they have a “destiny to confront this accursed plan and to thwart the goals of this war,” which includes stripping Lebanon of its “history, commitments, culture, and true identity to become an American-Zionist Lebanon.”
Hizbollah’s war with Israel thus becomes “an affirmation of the people’s right to resist occupation and the rejection of the American imperialistic tendency,” in the words of Mohammed Fneish. By blocking U.S. objectives in this war, Hizbollah will “obstruct the American plan” for the region “not in its aims but its results.” Hizbollah’s linking of the outcome of the current fighting with the success or failure of the U.S. Middle East plan is evinced by Nasrallah’s depiction of the conflict as “surpassing Lebanon….it is the conflict of the umma,” whose results will reverberate throughout the entire region. Given the immense popularity Hizbollah now enjoys in the Sunni Arab mainstream and among Islamist movements, the outcome of the war will have significant consequences not only for U.S. and Israeli goals in the region but also for the so-called “moderate” Arab regimes, whose substantial deference to the U.S.-Israeli line has been cast into sharper relief.
Amal Saad-Ghorayeb is an assistant professor at the Lebanese American University in Beirut. She writes regularly on Lebanese politics and is the author of Hizbullah: Politics and Religion
posted by beirutlive at 12:15 PM
92 Comments:
so whats new in all this?
how can we normal lebanese citizens live with this shit...
we dont want the new middle east and we dont want armed militias in the country
Bill from USA.
Now comes the hard part for Lebanon,dealing with HZ, I hope you are able resolve this because now that HZ has a BIG head it may Start this all over and trust me the Israelies won't make the same mistake twice about not going in with full force. I may be wrong but I believe in Lebanon and also support Israel, may you both have peace.Got this off of MSNBC.
"The Lebanese army would like UNIFIL troops to deploy first in southern Lebanon and for the Israelis to pull out, which would then remove Hezbollah's reason for remaining there under arms, according to a government minister who spoke on condition that he not be named. Once Hezbollah's militia pulls back from the border zone, he suggested, the question of its full disarmament or incorporation into the army can be debated.
"As the defense minister said, where there are Lebanese army troops, there can be no other armed presence," he added. "The position of Hezbollah, at best, is ambiguous. They seem to have a fundamental problem with surrendering their arms and moving out of the south. That is very disappointing. The best spin you can put on it is that Nasrallah wants it sorted out in private."
It is now Lebanon's turn to rid the south of Hezbollah, or Israel will do it for them. And that is not what Lebanon wants. If Israel goes into Lebanon again, 20,000 will die in a month, and that will only be the beginning. Please Lebanon, do the right thing, rid yourself of the Iranian guise that is Hezbollah.
and how do you suggest Lebanon get rid of Hez? it's not a straight forward 'yalla see you later guys'
I don't need to tell them how to do it, but I surely hope they do. The rest of the world is sick of this crap in the ME.
trust me, we in the middle east are sick of it too....enduring decades of this. just wondered if you had any suggestions behind your comment. What may seem to be the right thing from some carries a lot of danger for us here in the ME. Hopefully we can find some way to live next to Israel peacefully...as long as both sides play by the rules.
Why would anyone seriously believe Hezbollah will voluntarily disarm? Ever. There is absolutely no reason for them to do so - the only thing left to bomb is everything apparently NOT associated in any way with Hezbollah.
Until Israel and the US recognize there is no way to "win" this "war" militarily, it will continue. It is not possible even theoretically to simply kill everyone in the area. Nor, apparently, is it possible even to FIND the rockets, much less destroy them.
Nasrallah's success is in changing the terms of the equation - his "victory" is in Israel's failure to "win" what they and Bush said would be "won." To make matters worse, we keep saying we "won" - as in "Mission Accomplished." Nasrallah now also can say to the world - but especially to the Muslim world - "we stood up to the Israeli Army and weren't destroyed." Israel put itself in the position of having to say "we won - Hezbollah is destroyed." While permitting Hezbollah the position of saying, simply, "we didn't lose."
We MUST change the equation - not just keep on doing what has been done so unsuccessfully in Iraq, Afghanistan and now Lebanon. We can't rest everything on the simple idea that we can bomb an idea into submission. We're not fighting a country - we're fighting an idea. And so far, we're losing badly.
You know, for the immediate issue of disarming HZ and establishing a competent Lebonanese army, why combine the two? The Lebonanon gov't can offer incentives to HZ members to join their military. I think HZ can really help w/ their social service skills and public trust while the Lebonanon gov't would offer them peace and a stronger political sway w/ the likes of Isreal and the US. Comments?
I meant "why *not* combing the two?" Sorry...
That is WAY too long a story for this blog, Lola but I thank you for asking. The importance of vietnam to our current adventure is that we don't continue to ignore the lesson. So many people get so tightly wrapped about distinguishing details that they overlook the main lesson - know what it is you want to do and how you will know when it has been done. Even ignoring the morality of the undertaking or the politics of those involved, it is fundamentally important to know what it is you want to accomplish and how it is you will know when it has been accomplished. That's the failure in Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan. It was the failure in vietnam. We start with some ethereal idea of "winning" something and assume we'll do it with force of arms because we're so overwhelmingly powerful. And so we simply ignore the idea that anything other than our grand plan will work. That's what destroyed Napoleon at Moscow and Waterloo. It destroyed the Japanese, it destroyed the Nazi's and it destroyed ancient Rome. It defeated the United States in Vietnam and it's defeating us in Iraq. It will defeat the Israelis and the US in Lebanon and the mideast. If things continue as they are, Israel will simply cease to exist. Not tomorrow or next year but, in ten years? A hundred? And what way is it to live with that kind of future always threatening?
We MUST change fundamentally and recognize there are other players in the area. We cannot simply threaten to kill people who welcome death as martyrs. Or who - like the Japanese in WW2 - felt it was an honor above all others to die for the emperor.
Basically - we have to THINK a bit and then decide what has to be - and realistically can be - done.
From Asia
We have to change the way we do things in 21 st centuries. Aggression will not help if we want to be successful. We have to change the way we think and believe before we could change others. So, diplomacy is the answer. Put away the pride that you may have as it can no longer work at this point of time. A smart leader do not has to use weapon, spreading unfounded rumours, scheming and so on to convince the world. People are getting smarter to deal with US stereo type strategy.
Nelson Mandela will be able to advise Bush and Blair how to solve conflicts.
Wake up before it is too late.
Kevin from USA
I posted this along with some others but when I go back to see them I can't find them so I will repost them hoping that it was a computer problem if not sorry for reposting
I still think we need to ask our selfs what do we do!!! What do we want to tell our governments needs to be done. Do we want to debate this our do we want to make a difference. I do think we can. All governments in the world fear the people ether by revolt or by vote. Hezbollah fears the people in Lebanon because if they lose there support they will have no power.
That story is far too long and complicated to go into here. It starts - for the US - with the end of WW2. And then with the end of the French adventure in 1954. We got in because of a grand idea - the "domino theory" and could not have done it worse had we scripted the disaster.
What's important here is the lesson. Tens of thousands of vietnamese died in that fiasco. As did tens of thousands of Americans. We didn't set them back 20 years because they already were basically an agrarian economy but everything else about how that "war" was conducted is the same as Iraq and Afghanistan and Lebanon. My friends were killed - five of them who I counted among the best friends a man could ever want. For nothing.
What infuriates me - and keeps me awake at night - is that Israel and the US simply refuse to give ANY consideration to these past failures. Indeed, we not only ignore them, we say we "won" them and we're "winning" now. And that leads to precisely the same situation as in Vietnam. Think of it this way, Lola - you are at work and an errant bomb hits your home and kills your husband or your child. Or your friend or his or her mother. And then somebody says, "sorry - shit happens." And then, ten years or twenty years later, you see the precise same thing starting all over.
It is not possible to "win" this thing militarily. Period. End. We are not fighting a Clausewitzian style war although the Israeli and US Governments are so steeped in that doctrine that they simply refuse to let it go. But we don't have a government to deal with in Nasrallah. And that is the beginning of the problem. But rather than recognizing that truth, we make up pure bullshit - we say Lebanon should not permit these people in their country and, since they have, it is Lebanon's fault and we have to kill you. That way we have a Clausewitzian battlefield and can hope for a Clausewitzian outcome. Nasrallah says, "keep on truckin' dummies - I hope you NEVER understand because the more you do, the deeper you dig your hole." Do you know the first rule of holes, Lola? "When you're in one, STOP DIGGING."
We have to recognize Nasrallah has changed the equation. Whether we like it or not and whether we agree, it's changed. Israel and the US have boxed themselves in by saying "We have to win by destroying terror." And, we MUST destroy Hezbollah." Which means Nasrallah can say, simply "we win because we didn't lose." Now what? What's left to bomb? What threats are left? How is anyone ever going to "disarm" Hezbollah. It's a complete and utter impossibility.
Anyway - Vietnam is long ago and my friends are long dead. What I can't stand is the insanity I'm watching with no power to do anything about it. I read these chicken hawks saying "do it our way or we'll bomb you some more." And I read the chicken hawks on the other side saying the same kind of silliness. But the people in the middle are saying, "just go away - I just want to live. And eat some good food and drink some good wine and play with some good kids." And Nasrallah and Assad and Olmert and Bush and the others say, "you don't understand - we have to destroy all that you love and then kill you. Unless you simply die of a broken heart."
Sorry - I see the first of my posts went through - when I first tried to send it, I got an error screen that said it had been lost.
Damned terrorists have even taken over the internet.
Daooch---
I think you have a great idea. If we can get France and other UN members to provide training, and if Lebanon can offer incentives for some HZ members to become a part of the Lebanese military (as some already are) this might be a good first step towards creating a climate of moderation, and it sounds like that is that the Lebanese are seeking; they don't want Israel there and they don't want HZ inviting attacks. Something different has got to be attempted, and as long at the US and GBR are not involved, it would have a chance at working.
Kevin from USA
I posted this also once before
here is an article that I agree with and sent a copy to my Representatives and to my e-mail contacts so they can do the same I think those of us I the us need to act not just debate.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060816/news_1n16issa.html
Kevin from USA
sorry for the last post mind works faster than the fingers
I think those of us I the us need to act not just debate.
should read
I think those of us In the usa need to act not just debate.
Hezbollah achievements in resisting Israel were very significant and have international repercussions as the article said, but militarily Hezbollah has lost a great deal which was of course totally ignored in the article. Amal Saad-Ghorayeb was interviewed on the US program "Democracy Now" during Israel's attack and she seemed very knowledgeable on Hezbollah, but unable to critique Hezbollah in any kind of balanced way.
Frankly you would think the Universality could do better than hire a propagandist for Hezbollah, or are they - like too many in Lebanon - intimidated by Hezbollah? Personally I would never visit Lebanon until Hezbollah's military is brought under control.
Saad-Ghorayeb is correct that the Bush administration and their so-called "Christian Zionist" fanatics are totally out of control and have done enormous damage to the US in foreign affairs. At this point even the US military is resisting Bush because they view him as incompetent and even dangerous to the force.
But why would you not visit Lebanon before Hezbolah's military is "brought under control?" We portray Hezbollah as a bogey man to fear and loath. Why? For the same reason they portray us the same way.
The important difference is that they do as Chris correctly says we have to do - stop debating and do something. Without regard to who is "right" and who is "wrong", Hezbollah is not debating. They simply are doing. Here's the beginning of an article in todays Der Spiegel:
Armed Militants Helping Lebanon Rebuild
By Matthias Gebauer in Beit Lif, Lebanon
From rockets to reconstruction: the Islamic militant group Hezbollah has quickly switched its priorities from fighting Israeli troops to helping with reconstruction efforts in southern Lebanon. Hardworking, well organized and not about to disarm or retreat, they are impressing local residents.
The orders from Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah were very clear, but militia commander Suliman couldn't carry them out this time. The head of the Shiite extremist group told his fighters by radio on Saturday that as part of the cease-fire agreement starting this week they were to switch from military camouflage to civilian clothing. Suliman would have gladly obeyed, but there was just one problem.
"Unfortunately I only have one pair of trousers," says the Hezbollah veteran while grinning embarrassedly. "What can I do?"
http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1518,432054,00.html
Kevin regardless of anyone thinks of me I'm here to stay.
Were on the right track. I thought about it allot last night. Is there a place where people work to resolve something instead of just poking sticks at it? I'm not trying to belittle anyone either but we'll waste half our time arguing instead of brain storming.
Is there a better suited blog site out there for our venture?
From Asia
An angry and arrogance leader tends to make wrong decision. You can’t think of the likely implication of your critical decision that you made when you are angry. Your reputation as a leader is questionable.
A smart leader core quality
Never, ever berates others.
Assess your weaknesses before pointing fingers at others.
Gain respect, do not demand.
Respect helps create a culture of partnership and teamwork. Leaders who demonstrate respect show an unconditional high regard for others, acknowledging their values and people, regardless of their behaviours. Respect comes through in all situations, even during times of conflict or criticism.
Understand others’ points of view including those that are different from yours.
Listen with understanding and with an open mind.
Reflects before reacting and consciously chooses an appropriate response.
A smart leader does not spend time assigning blame and looking for a scapegoat.
Digest
I know it sounds bi-polar but I was trying to build as much hate as possible. If anyone person could then listen to a single word I said..... well I'm sure you get the point.
So Kevin is offering up some idea's, sho's next. what can we offer to the leaders of these countries as idea's.
Can any of the idea's we start to generate be placed ina special blog that is saved? I'm asking this of the authors of this blog?
I think Anonymous from Asia has put his finger on it. Again, without moral judgment about the cause, it certainly seems Nasrallah has the qualities of a leader that Bush and Olmert lack. But Mr. Sinora also apparently scores high.
It's helpful to use Asia's checklist and review honestly the different chiefs involved in this crisis. Not to determine who is "right" or "wrong" but who is more likely to persuade others to his point of view and cause those people to follow.
Thank you for a very informative piece of work. More please!
Sam, i still dont understand you and your approach to contributing meaningful insight to the situation. In fact, i honestly cant take you seriously because of your previous comments. I dont hate you, because i dont care that much. Regardless,
The first step to your question: "Can any of the idea's we start to generate be placed ina special blog that is saved?" is to inform others (family, friends, co-workers, etc) of the perspectives you learned here and elsewhere, if any. Very frew people even know there is a problem to be solved. Most think about the ME as some crazy place, without context. These are some initial thoughts of mine.
Kevin from the USA
Anonymous 8:30 That is what we need to change !! Sam I have offerd to create a web site that could be used for that. All I would need is a domaine name. our band width is low 384kb but it would be a place to start.
A name..... How about it Lilu, Lola, Rick and everyone else and yes you too Hcb. What would be a good name so that Kevin can start a web site.
Great article:
http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/viewArticle.asp?articleID=12508
Kevin, just stay foucused as will I. I'm not into batteling nor explaing my past. Lets keep this ball rolling, more people will join in and it can help. Come on guys, what do we have to lose? You're voice will be heard as will mine.
We can make a change but it takes more than two people. It's a great start but join us.
Lilu, Lola, Rick - Sam continues to try to drag me into his feel good effort. I want nothing to do with it and, since I like and respect all of you and the others I've enjoyed meeting, I'd like you to understand why. Take a look at the last five or six posts on the next title down (It's called "What is the logic behind this war?" There you will see Sam's idea of a "viewpoint" I should respect. And, in earlier posts under that topic, you will see my comments about why I will have nothing to do with him.
This Blog is not about him or me - I've asked him repeatedly to simply ignore me as I want to do with him. But he insists - just as he did with spewing his filth previously.
In any event - I don't want to take time or space to have a discussion with or about Sam or with or about me. I have absolutely no respect for his views or his uninformed opinions about anything. Accordingly, it would be completely counterproductive for me to participate in this idea of his in any fashion. I do not mean to suggest anyone else has or should have similar feelings. I simply want you to know mine and the basis for those feelings.
Howard
you people better recognize a few facts.
1.israel was gonna attack and invade us anyways and regardless of who got captured.
2.hizbollah and lebanon was triumphant in this war
3.Such bold and powerful response will prevent any future stupid israeli adventures in to lebanon cuz now they realize if they hit we hit right back
4.Talk like this ..............Hizbollah officials believe they have a “destiny to confront this accursed plan and to thwart the goals of this war,” which includes stripping Lebanon of its “history, commitments, culture, and true identity to become an American-Zionist Lebanon.”.............is not true ,distorted and not helpful...
MOST IMPORTANT SOLUTION FOR LEBANON
5. INTEGRATE HIZBOLLAH IN TO THE FACKIN ARMY, THEY WILL STAY ARMED,STAY A DETTERENT TO ISRAEL, AND BE UNDER THE FACKIN CONTROL OF THE ARMY..
WHY CANT PEOPLE SEE THIS AS THE ONE AND ONLY VICTORIOUS DECISION
CASE CLOSED..
MIDAS
Totally understand, hcb.
I will admit to being highly skeptical, particularly given the severity of the earlier comments.
I am not looking to join another site, or give it a name, but thanks for asking me. I plan to talk and listen here, and to invite people to discussions on my own blog.
How does the combined deaths of 1200 people creat a winner?
uh oh - "fackin" is back. Um, Midas - I think the statement you quoted was made by Nasrallah. Wasn't it? I don't understand - given the rest of what you said - you would say it "is not true ,distorted and not helpful..." Unless, of course, I'm wrong and Nasrallah didn't say it.
I can see that people like controversy not results. It's sad that another human being wouldn't want their children to know what peace is. That’s a shame but it doesn't detour me one bit. Instead of perpetuating a problem and or instigating it I am going to try to change it.
Maybe the one thing people can do is “think” before they post something. Ask what does this article or thought have to with making it better or does it add salt to an open wound. I’m not saying I’m perfect but I do have an agenda that I have been following.
hcb yo
it says hizbollah officials believe...blabla.. i said its not helpful, cuz who would want to detroy our history and culture, especially these cool religious freaks that to them its all about the history and culture, thats why they cant become a bit more moderate and accepting in their way.
But u do agree with my solution dont u?
lola and fishter say hi
fackin midas... this is the new fack
hey sam why dont u
eat a dick,
and while youre at it, eat shit and
die..
i dont even know you and i allready
hate you and your stupid agenda...
have you seen i am sam,the movie, you are as retarded as i am sammmmmm.... i eat green eggs and ham.. why dont u go take a long walk off a short cliff.
fackin guy
Maybe the one thing people can do is “think” before they post something. Ask what does this article or thought have to with making it better or does it add salt to an open wound. I’m not saying I’m perfect but I do have an agenda that I have been following.
hi honey im homee
Hi husband
wuts that peeking out of your pants, a pencil.
and where is sam jr?
It's okay Midas, you can use what ever name and post whatever you like but if you live there why wouldn't want things to be better, safer & happier?
I misunderstood - and "hi" to all of you as well. No - I don't agree with your solution - not entirely. But I DO agree with the thought behind it. The trouble is Hizbollah (what IS the correct spelling?) and Israel and Bush are talking past each other. I think Nasrallah is a lot smarter than either Bush or Olmert - even if he's being cynical. But I don't think he's cynical - I think he's sincere in wanting to help the refugees Israel created. If Bush and Olmert had the slightest bit of sense, they'd be sending enormous amounts of aid to help undo what has been done and to help make people at least wonder if America and Israel don't have a heart somewhere down deep.
I DO also think Hizbollah has a right to at least try to remain in the Lebaneze parliament but I am not from there and don't know all the facts upon which that decision has to be made. But I do know that if it's a democracy, then Hezbollah should be heard and have the opportunity to be in a place of influence. No different than the fights we used to have about the "communist menace."
Peace to you, new fack
No Honey, dont be silly, you know what that is.. Now come sharpen my pencil bitch.
Sam jr will you stop humping the dog please..
i didnt like nasrallah anymore for a while after he was supporting syria blindly while the country was revolting against it for supposedly killing hariri and causing chaos. but after wut he did fighting israel i must say i like this charismatic guy again. and by the way i do believe he will build every last house of the refugees in the south and in dahyeh and the lebanese governmnet has pledged to help.. i know this because iran has allready offered to nasrallah to build all the houses of the people that their houses got destroyed
hizbollah is and will remain in parliament.
Midas I'm supreised, I figured anyone who just went through that wouldn't want lasting peace? I guess you don't have children.
Kevin from USA
I want to thank all of you for the information and I do respect all your points of view. I do hope you all keep talking but I feel I have to move on and find some way that I can make a difference. If there is any of you out there that would like to try to change things. Please e-mail me Kevin@kevin-graff.com . For the rest of you I leave you with this quote.
“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.” -- Edmund Burke,
I will be writing you Kevin, thanks for being open minded.
It's a shame to loose you here, there is good but it's hidden in the consatant hate and finger pointing. Like I am doing right now.
But I won't give up, I'm staying here even if some people say stuff or use my name. It's cool becasue my mum and da taught me before 1st grade that people will always try to hurt you with words. Alwasy remember Sam that they're words not actions.
Peace!
King midas from ghana will tell you the true lebanese solution to SAMMMMM. if sam decides to eat green eggs and ham then we would forgive him for previously hating any group. and give him the benefit of the doubt cuz we are good forgiving people who love to live in peace and enjoy our god given land.
Peace
It has so little to do with the middle east. It has to do with much more. China, North Korea, Russia, Pakistan, Afganistan.. all of the stans for that matter. The first step is the middle east, it will spread once started.
I cared before but after reading the post for a few days and seeing the views I tried something different. You tell me, how many people would be so hateful to all people religons and such? I wanted to make an example of myself.
And everyone can tell it's me, whoi else type's as bad?
People use my name for insults but thats okay. Their just words.
your mum taught you well sam. theyre just words. its the actions that really hurt people. actions performed during war. thats why we should all promote peace, love, and understanding of different religions
Midas..... that one got old when I was about 5. I guess there's not to many Sam's over there or you do have kids and have just recently read the book. Very nice too, making fun of retarded people. You can't be a peaceful person, you are just using the same mouth.
So then stop the insults and help build faith and love..... which leads to peace.
lola what is your verdict on sam, we are awaiting on your acceptance. are you a forgiving lebanese?
midas dipitty dawg
Kevin from USA
Lola what I would like to do is get as many people for around the world as we can get. Come up with what is agreed upon that the US need to do to help. What the Israels need to do . And all the different governments. Then the people from each country can send out the the needs for there country in a chain letter asking all of the people they know to froward the message to there government. Like anything at first it will be small. If we work together and don't look to blame or tell just advise. I think we can get it to grow
i dont have kids, didnt read any book and i was makin fun of you not retards. i forgave you regradless of your twisted zionist ideologies..and youre still not willing to forgive your soul and understand the meaning of peace. who r u and what do u stand for to judge the lives of people that live it first hand.
anonymous,
its easier said than done. your letters will be ignored before you can say the word negotiation. they believe might is right and until that changes there will be powers in the back doors at work that you cannot even begin to comprehend. They control all the money, oil , weapons and retain their hold dominantly on their puppet slave regimes bribed by money and women. but people are slowly waking up and the only way to speed up this awakening is to spread the truth.
yes, as i said before, no peace without truth....forget justice, forget all that. Truth is the number one thing people should be focused on...and spreading around the world...
Who am I, I am Sam! I've lived a life of simplicity. No hard ships that have made me suffer, no death of family. But I sit back and say why can't everyone live the same, what makes me so special to know simplicity. I could walk away and nver care, I can go fishing and forget the suffereing. Sorry, I'd like your kids as well as all people feel comfortable too. No bomb shelters, terrorists armies shooing everything. Defenses are good, not offenses.
Who's truth? What truth? None of us will ever know the truth but we all guilty around the world of supporting the leaders casuing all of this. Truth is like a God, which god is real? Are any of them, are all of them? Truth is a word we use but have no idea what it means.
From Asia
Hcb, I am sure there are many intellectuals out there in US who can contribute with constructive ideas and realistic solution to middle-east conflicts. Perhaps, one has to initiate by inviting them to give their views, proposal and recommendation; and present them to UN.
How to resolve conflicts
It would be wise if one put aside the grudges between them, which shall benefits all parties involved to list down the root cause, brainstorm and come up with justifiable, realistic and sustainable solution for a long period. Differences (root cause) between all parties involved have to be addressed and resolved fairly.
Think out of the box
When there is a problem there is always an opportunity for us to think wisely with alternative solution. Most leaders fail because of hatred, little voice on their head, say negative things, towards their enemies. Hatred, different point of views is the giant hand break that haunting “World Leader “to accept and resolve the unsolvable conflicts.
Digest
And the first person who says thire leader is not lying or casuing problems then your miss guided.
Kevin From USA
Midas here in the USA our leaders need to get elected to do that they do need the to have the people behind the. But even those governments and groups need the people behind them. Do you relay think that Iran and Hezbollah would be jumping to rebuild if they didn't need the people to support them. By the way I do think Hezbollah should remain as a political party they do represent a large group
you know truth when you see it, just like I know there is a God because I feel Him. the problem is that alot of people are not even exposed, dare I say, shielded from the truth.
dont make things more complicated then they are. I am not talking about perceptions of right or wrong, i am talking about truth. its very simple concept, but takes a lot of energy to get there.
KEEP GOING ASIA, EVERY BIT HELPS!
Exactly anonymous.. The truth is out there sam, u have to really look deep and research to know which groups or governmnets are out for true peace and justice, u dont find the truth by going fishng sam. And according to wut u say, its obvious u dont beileve in god, and hence will never find any kind of truth or love, cuz you dont know wut truth looks like. God is love, and love brings peace.
I believe in God, but I'm not going to judge you beacsue of your God. When I say the truth, words are biased, views are biased. thats why were not asking for views anymore, were asking for ideas like Aisa & Kevin.
I do believe, so please don't say that I don't. that is insulting.
God is truth, and truth brings love and love brings peace. So find Him, and you will be okay. the problem is we cant force people to do so, they have to find on their own. but most will consider this crazy talk, although it is very simple.
Each is accountable for him/herself. Dont rely on the govts and radical groups to find your identity. This includes the US, HZ, Israel and whatever else you want to bring into the circle.
God is truth, and truth brings love and love brings peace. So find Him, and you will be okay. the problem is we cant force people to do so, they have to find on their own. but most will consider this crazy talk, although it is very simple.
Each is accountable for him/herself. Dont rely on the govts and radical groups to find your identity. This includes the US, HZ, Israel and whatever else you want to bring into the circle.
no, sam, truth is in action, not ideas floating around....i have plenty of neat ideas about the current situation, but if i treat my neighbor like crap, or put others down, as you did many times on this website, then my ideas have no merit.
i cant take your ideas seriously.
Please do one thing, they're are people out there that don't have faith in a higher power. Don't push them to the side, they are or should be welcome too. This is not my blog so I can't force anything, I can just ask. You have to accept someone even if they don't believe. Religious reasons are the causes for allot of the conflicts and deaths were all trying to eliminate.
What you're saying is true, then what is your idea? Don't point a finger and say NO. Forget me and join in with the others. This has nothing to do with me. I'm nothing but one voice, with Kevin and Asia we are three.
Listen to Anonymous sam he will show you the path to truth. Anonymous, spoken like a true king i must say. you are wise.i just hope they are alot of people like you out there.Sam if you believe in god you wouldnt say ,believe in your god and my god and his god. there is only one god, the one of muslims, christians , jews and buddist. he is everyones god and until u amdmit that atleast u r no where near finding the truth.
Midas
phishter, who knows if those guys have faith in God, they may have faith in something else that is driving them...we cannot judge them one way or another.
Both HZ and Israeli soldiers are puppets or machines used for some larger purpose, each on opposite ends.
I commend those Israeli soliers who refused to fight, and were thrown in jail for that. They knew the truth and stood up for it.
Now that is truth in the midst of hate and chaos!
the country that is going to be pushing the buttons is the States. I don't want fingers pointed from around the worl at us. So lets try to figure out how to lesson or defuse the situation with Iran and Sryia.
Plus anyone one who wants to bash me here's my e-mail and last name. Bash me there and leave this one moving forward.
Lilu we are foucusing, it's not about me. I don't want it to be. I am a voice, thats it. Nothing more, nothing less. The issue is change and peace. HOW DO WE GET THERE? NOT WHY WE'RE HERE.
sammetler@hotmail.com there is my e-mail and my name.
Eh, wallow, HZ=Party of God, that doesnt mean anything.
I agree there is only 1 God. Am not being philosophical, but realistic...$, Lebanese mentality, external forces etc etc are big driving force, not just faith in God.
Sam might be FBI, trying to make us really mad to see how we "terrorists" react and threaten...
you never know.
you see Sam, we cannot take you seriously because of how you presented yourself initially.
i dont care enough to get to know you or your thoughts to save the world.
Sorry, to late Phis. I have already received some e-mails. I am not an FBI, CIA or NSA. I am a private citizen in the electroincs manufactuing industry. I have nothing to gain, they're not my views either. These are the views of people who are not affraid to try.
Are you affraid of letting down your hate for better things.
I've used my real name and you know where I live. Don't be threatened by me, I'm harmless. There is no change of heart, I said many bad things to inspire true deep hate. That is the bases of forgiving somone you hate. If you can't do that then you're doomed as are our children.
As for melting me down, or calling me a f%^ker? So what, don't be the problem be the solution.
Sam, we dont care enough about you to hate you. Its not you, but your stupid and ignorant ideas... unfortunately others in this world truely have the same messages.
And who do you think you are with your S&M tendencies?--
You "teach" us how to forgive by making us "hate" you. Who are you to teach us? You need to be taught.
Again, we dont hate you, we dont like you. You wasted our time and energy responding to your stupid, idiotic comments. Now, you want us to be fruitful and talk about real change? What a waste of energy you are.
No mind games, sorry not smart enough. No teaching to be exact only a starting point,
For a long time nothing will happen to Isreal. America will continue to support them and they will stay the course.
Thats not the right thing, they need to deal with the issues and stop using a gun to do the talking. But all parties need to stop using the guns as a voice.
We the poeple are keeping this going by building more an dmore hate. People come on to this blog and get dissgusted or mad and become more bitter.
There words, there will be no collapse and the world knows it. They will not give up their country. If that were the case America would have folded during the Vietnan era. there was more anger and hate from people and soldiers in that time than esist in all of Israel.
Your ideas are just that, ideas said to draw a conflict with others. Why? How are you or your people going to gain from these comments?
I'm not changed, I wasn't me beacuse I was trying to alianate myself from every one. The start from there.
I am sorry for making this a Sam topic, I will not respond to things anymore asked of me, I am onl going to work to help resolve things not prmote hate and or biased views.
So don't listen to me, join into Kevin and Asia's ideas. Kevin has always been level headed and understanding.
i am tired of Sam and comments about him. This is not a sam blog.
He thinks he is teaching us a lesson and now we should all cooperate with him to find solutions. He sounds like the epitome of the Bush administration.
I predict HZ will get stronger and there will be tension and chaos in Leb because of it. As everyone knows, not everyone supports HZ in Lebanon. Their support will wane as the days pass and the people come to realization about their futures.
Israel will remain as it is, with the US kissing its ass (or the other way around).
And China will become the next and most important super power.
The end.
I hope not, but its very likely. Many predicted this would happen if HZ was victorious. And they were, and this could happen.
Remember, its not just HZ, but their was a huge demographic shift in the population with the southern Shia moving north into Chrisitan territory. This should be thought about more closely. There is an economic and sociological component to this as well.
I am lebanese, but i am talking realistically. There is a sociological component to this...tension that will arise over time...if you ignore that, then you are being ignorant to say the least.
HZ should teach the Leb army how to defend and fight, and then disarm, of course. That would give them a legitimate voice, make them feel important in contribution to defending their country. Then, whoever wants to be absorbed into the army can and should.
have you lived in lebanon, lola? I am not classifying but stating a reality: If you have shia families moving into predominately christian neighborhoods and vise versa, their will be tension, not just in terms of religion but competition of resources etc. Remember 1 million people were displaced, over 1/4 of the population. This will lead to tension on every level.
As i said, HZ should be "consultants" to the army under the premise of defending Lebanon--afterall, they did a very good job of not folding--. This will not totally dismiss them but gradually diminish their miliary might and disarming. You cant just make HZ go away, but rather re-define their role in Lebanon.
I wish I lived in Lebanon - I really do. Or that I could at least live there for a year or two or three. Or Tel Aviv or Haifa. Right now I'm in Disneyworld - outside Orlando, Florida. It's got places like the "Magic Kingdom" and other pre-planned adventures in EPCOT and MGM and so forth. A wonderful place but I don't have kids with me - and I should have kids with me. Two nine year old twin girls love me and I should have them here so I could really enjoy the place.
But Lebanon - I know it's easy for me to say. It's air conditioned here and it's free of bombs and bombed out buildings and terror and all the horrors of the past month. But it's also - - pale. You are in an exciting time. Things are going to change. Into what is the question but there's no question things are going to change. And YOU are going to change them. Lebanon doesn't have as many people in the whole country as we have in a couple of counties in Florida. So my chance of doing anything to affect anything anything is so remote I don't even count it. But you have the chance.
Don't waste it by talking it to death. Here's an idea - you know who is really a hell of a woman there? Lola. And she has her match in Lilu - on the other side of the fence. The good news is they both like beer. And they both like being women and being intelligent and being informed. They don't talk together much but they both demand and give respect.
That's the key. You don't have to make the big decisions everyone is talking about. You don't have to decide if Hezbollah will or should disarm (it won't) or if it will be in the government (it will). You shouldn't be talking about dividing Shias and Sunnis and Christians and so forth - we did that here and still do. So we have people who refer to themselves as "African Americans" and others who refer to them as "Niggers." Nothing good comes from that. Little kids don't do it until they learn they are supposed to. And then they do it and teach their kids the same hate. Being physically separated - segregated - makes the hate especially effective.
There are bad people here - coke smoking niggers, some say. White trash and yellow skinned gooks. Same as there, I'll bet - you have different names but the same visceral reactions. So, what's common? A lack of respect for each other. And a lack of hope in some, a lack of desire in others. No common beliefs.
That's why it would be good to be in Lebanon - especially Beirut. All those different people and beliefs and histories and backgrounds and upbringings. And all that's needed to bring them together is some respect. A glass of beer on an outside deck on a hot summer night with some music will do it - ain't nobody in the world can resist layin' back and just relaxing on a hot summer night outside.
and then you can talk. But not about Hezbollah and Israel and Shia and 600 year old insults that still have to be avenged. About tonight. And the kids. About how to build the apartments - not about the cruelty that tore them down - about the love that will rebuild them.
Don't get so damned complicated that you lose sight of the bouncing ball. It's respect. Purely and simply. Nasrallah at least seems to respect the people he leads - Asia is exactly right there. He respects the people and the people respect him.
Hope - Israel needs to do one thing to solve the Palestine "problem" - at least somewhat - give some hope. Hope for a decent place to live and for something decent to eat and hope the kids will see their 20th and 30th and 40th birthdays. Hamas and the others need to reciprocate - give hope the madness will stop.
None of that will happen with treaties or resolutions or any of the other things forced on each other by foreigners who mean well but have no real clue about the people they are imposing the good will on. The United States cannot impose democracy - it took a revolutionary war and a civil war here and we still don't have a complete democracy. But some places either don't want it or aren't ready for it. Maybe the US and Israel can help by introducing ideas and technology but maybe they need also to listen to some old people in the hills of south lebanon for ideas on how to live honorably.
It seems so easy to me - sit with a beer and talk. Don't iterrupt so much. Don't yell. Have you read this? Read it and keep it with you:
All I really need to know about how to live and what to do and how to be I learned in kindergarten. Wisdom was not at the top of the graduate school mountain, but there in the sand pile at school.
These are the things I learned:
Share everything.
Play fair.
Don't hit people.
Put things back where you found them.
Clean up your own mess.
Don't take things that aren't yours.
Say you're sorry when you hurt somebody.
Wash your hands before you eat.
Flush.
Warm cookies and cold milk are good for you.
Live a balanced life - learn some and think some and draw and paint and sing and dance and play and work every day some.
Take a nap every afternoon.
When you go out in the world, watch out for traffic, hold hands and stick together.
Be aware of wonder. Remember the little seed in the Styrofoam cup: the roots go down and the plant goes up and nobody really knows how or why, but we are all like that.
Goldfish and hamsters and white mice and even the little seed in the Styrofoam cup - they all die. So do we.
And then remember the Dick-and-Jane books and the first word you learned - the biggest word of all - LOOK.
Naieve? Sure. But a helluva lot better than an M16 or an Ak-47.
Peace my friends. I wish I could be there. I wish we could sit around a big table and drink beer and tell lies and admire Lilu and Lola. I'd like to dance and sing and make promises we won't kill each other. I'd like to shake hands with you and hug each of you. Just because I like you - nothing hidden and no other reason.
You all are wonderful, sincere, caring people. God, how I wish we could get together for an evening or a year. How I wish I could be there to participate in making such a wonderful place. International force? You're good and damned right - we'd be an international force. With beer from every country in the world. Except I draw the line at beer from Israel. And that sweet stuff from Lebanon. But Germany ... now there's beer. And Spain. And Denmark ......
It would be a lot of fun. Don't waste it on arguing and debating and trying to do such big things first. Just be friends.
I have none, why extend this dialog with my bla. I'm not part of the solution doing this so I'm just listening and learning more and more and how peace will never be possible. WWIII truley is coming and sooner than we think. Why waste energy on cahnging the direction of the wind.
I'll work with Kevin in a different way.
maybe the lebanese state should invest in the south . to bring work, employment to that area, so that the southerners will have something else to rely on than the hezbollah idological social control.
in that way people might believe again in the lebanese state, amd not feel ignored.
but will hezbollah permit anything of the sort?
were will they get their future martyrs from, if the southerners become interested in building a stable, continuous life?
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